Mapping Agricultural Vulnerability for India Employing Time-series Satellite Data Products

Abstract

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) 8-km Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 16-day 250m NDVI data product were taken to analyse vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate change impacts. Predicted higher temperature and altered rainfall patterns accompanied by extreme weather events would impact vegetation growth in natural forest, open scrub, agricultural land and plantations. NDVI derived from 2-band information (Red & Near-infra Red) of multi-spectral imagery of NOAA-AVHRR (1982 to 2006) and from MODIS (2000-2010) were analyzed. CV of Max NDVI from 15-day composites for the total length of study period was used to assess agricultural vulnerability and results were corroborated with Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). AVHRR time-series data helped to identify vulnerable areas at regional scale i.e., agro-ecological sub-regions (AESR) while MODIS data products helped to identify vulnerability at sub-district level. It is estimated that over 263.74 M ha area in the country may be vulnerable to climate change of which over 81.3 M ha are located in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid regions. Study indicated that over 12.1 and 1.81 M ha of Kharif cropland would be mildly and severally vulnerable respectively, while 6.86 and 0.5 M ha of Rabi cropland may be adversely affected in a similar manner. Of the remaining agricultural lands, 29.93 and 5.24 M ha would also be vulnerable similarly.