Application of Markov model and standardized precipitation index for analysis of droughts in Bundelkhand region of India.

Abstract

Drought is a common occurrence in Bundelkhand, a drought prone region of central India and agriculture is the primary economic sector affected. The present study is based on the 44 years rainfall data for the period 1968- 2011 compiled from the meteorological observatory of CSWCRTI, research centre Datia, Madhya pradesh. In the preset study we have used standardized precipitation index (SPI). to assess the vulnerability of meteorological droughts in Bundelkhand region of India. The worst drought was observed during july , 1970 as indicated by the lowest ever SPI value of -2.48. Highest drought magnitude (5.93) has been observed during june to october 1979 with a return period of 96 years followed by may to august 1987 with a magnitude of 3.43 and a return period of 48 years. In the last decades maximum droughts magnitude was observed during july- august, 1993 and in most recent past a drought magnitude of 1.59 was observed during july to october 2009. The multi- period Markov model has been applied for prediction of occurrence of droughts in next five years in the region. Based on the drought analysis we conclude that there is a possibility of one severe drought of magnitude up to 2 within a period of 8 years. This information will be useful to agricultural planners and irrigation engineers for planning on long term drought mitigation strategy.