Predicting the invasion potential of indigenous restricted mango fruit borer, Citripestis eutraphera (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in India based on MaxEnt modelling

Abstract

The mango fruit borer, Citripestis eutraphera (Meyrick), originally confined to the Andaman Islands, is a recent invasion in mainland India. With changes in climatic conditions, the pest is likely to spread in other major mango-growing regions of the country and can pose serious threats to mango production. In this backdrop, the present study examines the impact of climate change to develop spatio-temporal distribution of invasive C. eutraphera in India using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling approach. Integration of point data on current occurrence of pest and corresponding bioclimatic variables in MaxEnt were used to define the potential distribution in India and mapped using spatial analysis tool in ArcGIS. The model framework performed well as indicated by high area under the curve (0.97) value. Jackknife test for estimating predictive power of the variables indicated that ‘isothermality’ and ‘temperature seasonality’ significantly affected C. eutraphera distribution. It was found that mango-growing pockets in the southwestern parts of Gujarat, as well as parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu were moderately to highly suitable for C. eutraphera distribution in 2050 and 2070. The results of this study could be an important guide for selecting monitoring and surveillance sites and designing integrated pest management policies in the context of climate change against this invasive pest of mango.