Exploratory analysis on the predictability of oil sardine landings in Kerala

Abstract

In recent times, the oil sardine fishery along the west coast especially off the coast of Kerala shows signs of decline coupled with its year to year variability. In this study an empirical model is given to describe the oil sardine fishery along the Kerala coast using the time series approach and also examine its relationship with the climatic factors such as the rainfall, mean sea level pressure and solar activity. The analysis has revealed, albeit tentatively, the possible factors causing short-term and long-term variations in the catches of the oil sardine. Predictive models based purely on the autocorrelations and cyclic trend suggest possibility of generating forecasts which can be validated taking into consideration the long-term and year to year concomitant variations in the correlated factors. The present study is only a beginning in the search for a suitable predictive system for the small pelagics such as the oil sardine.