Forecasting future prospects of fish and paddy production in Andhra Pradesh using VAR model. Journal of Experimental Zoology India

Abstract

The current study attempts to explore how aquaculture and paddy production are evolved over the years in Andhra Pradesh (A.P.), India. These production systems are competing with one another in terms of resource utilisation especially in West Godavari district of AP. Hence, trends and future prospect of fish and paddy production are simultaneously studied by using VectorAutoregression (VAR) model. VAR model explains dynamic interrelationships among the variables and has been found to be better than time series regression with lagged explanatory variables as indicated by diagnostic tools. Its outcome indicates that fish production is influenced by the past values of fish. 11 (p=0.01) whereas, paddy production is influenced by paddy. 11 (p=0.04) and Mean Average Percent Error values of fish and paddy are 28.37 and 5.42 respectively indicate the variation between the actual and predicted values.Main cause for decreasing trend in paddy production has been found out as the rising cost of cultivation and forms the basis of decline in net sown area. Since both the sectors are equally important, therefore, it is suggested that blocks/mandals may be clearly earmarked into agri and aqua zones for their growth leading to nutritional security and employment generation within the district and state.