Modeling short-term spatial and temporal variability of groundwater level using geostatistics and GIS

Abstract

Continuous depletion of groundwater levels from deliberate and uncontrolled exploitation of groundwater resources lead to the severe problems in arid and semi-arid hard-rock regions of the world. Geostatistics and GIS have been proved as successful tools for efficient planning and management of the groundwater resources. The present study demonstrated applicability of geostatistics and GIS to understand spatial and temporal behavior of groundwater levels in a semi-arid hard-rock aquifer of Western India. Monthly groundwater levels of 50 sites in the study area for 36-month period (May 2006–June 2009; excluding three months) were analyzed to find spatial autocorrelation and variances in the groundwater levels. Experimental variogram of the observed groundwater levels was computed at 750 m lag distance interval and four most-widely used geostatistical models were fitted to the experimental variogram. The best-fit geostatistical model was selected by using two goodness-of-fit criteria, i.e., root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (r). Then spatial maps of the groundwater levels were prepared through kriging technique by using the best-fit geostatistical model. Results of two spatial statistics (Geary's C and Moran's I) indicated a strong positive autocorrelation in the groundwater levels within 3 km lag distance. It is emphasized that the spatial statistics are promising tools for geostatistical modeling, which help choose appropriate values of model parameters. Nugget-sill ratio (<0.25) revealed that the groundwater levels have strong spatial dependence in the area. The statistical indicators (RMSE and r) suggested that any of the three geostatistical models, i.e., spherical, circular and exponential, can be selected as the best-fit model for reliable and accurate spatial interpolation. However, exponential model is used as the best-fit model in the present study. Selection of the exponential model as the best-fit was further supported by very high values of coefficient of determination (r2 ranging from 0.927 to 0.994). Spatial distribution maps of groundwater levels indicated that the groundwater levels are strongly affected by surface topography and presence of surface water bodies in the study area. Temporal pattern of the groundwater levels is mainly controlled by the rainy-season recharge and amount of groundwater extraction. Furthermore, it was found that the kriging technique is helpful in identifying critical locations over the study area where water saving and groundwater augmentation techniques need to be implemented in order to protect depleting groundwater resources.