Assessment of the impact of increasing temperature and rainfall variability on crop productivity in drylands - An illustrative approach

Abstract

Climate variability and it’s impact on agriculture has become a prime concern of the country as majority of Indian farmers are vulnerable to climatic change. Projections of the future climate and consequent changes in crop yields using crop growth models were attempted by several workers all over the world. These models involve a lot of empiricism or in-built assumptions. Many of the processes simulated in these crop models do not account for the complexity of natural variables, and the crop genetic adaptability. In this context, it is worthwhile to examine the crop / genetic responses to climate variability using real time data as they involve the response of the genotype to complex environmental interactions. The intra seasonal variability in crop yields is largely driven by the two parameters, rainfall and thermal regime in tropical dryland areas. The relative impact of these two parameters on crop productivity was not evaluated systematically. Therefore, a study was undertaken to assess the impact of varying rainfall and increasing seasonal temperature on the productivity of groundnut grown under rainfed conditions at Anantapur representing a typical arid region in Peninsular India. The methodology attempted to isolate the impact of variability in rainfall regime and increasing temperature individually and in combination provides an opportunity to identify the research and extension priorities required to deal with the problem of climatic variability and probable adaptation strategies. Suggestions and comments on the proposed methodology attempted in this bulletin will be appreciated.