Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change: District Level Assessment in the Indo-Gangetic Plains

Abstract

The Indian agriculture, despite making significant progress, is facing the challenges of stagnating net sown area, reducing per capita land availability, deteriorating soil health and diminishing natural resources. Additionally, climate variability and changes are the emerging challenges being faced by this sector for ensuring national food security in both short and long terms and making agriculture sustainable and climate-resilient, appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies have to be developed. Assessing vulnerability of agriculture to climate change is the pre-requisite for developing and disseminating climate-smart technologies. Decision-makers and planners need this information to prepare strategy for addressing the adverse impacts of climate change and prioritize vulnerable regions for resources allocations. With this background the present study was undertaken to demonstrate a methodology to assess and map the composite vulnerability of agriculture to climate variability and changes in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), which is one of the most populous and productive agricultural ecosystems in the world. The vulnerability of Indian agriculture has been determined at the district level in the IGP using three core components:(i) exposure to hazards,(ii) sensitivity to climate change, ie the amount of damage expected to be caused by a particular event, and (iii) adaptive capacity to recover from stress. A novelty of this study is that it has considered climatic, physical and socio-economic factors together to arrive at vulnerability rating. A total of 8 indicators have been computed using gridded meteorological data for the period 1951-2009 for exposure. Sensitivity has been computed from 6 indicators based on crop and soil characteristics. Computation of adaptive capacity has been based on socio-economic indicators of agricultural technology, infrastructure and human development. These spatial datasets of the key indicators contributing to agricultural vulnerability have been generated for the 161 districts in the IGP. These indicators were ranked; weight of each factor was estimated using multi-criteria decision-making techniques such as analytic hierarchal process and finally, the vulnerability maps of agriculture to climate change in the IGP districts were developed. These districts have been tabulated as per the vulnerability rank based on which highly vulnerable, medium vulnerable and less vulnerable districts have been identified. It has been found that the districts located in the eastern and southern parts of U$ar Pradesh and Bihar are most vulnerable, whereas the districts in Punjab and Haryana are having low vulnerability due to their higher adaptive capacity to recover from the climatic stresses. The study also computed state-wise normalized vulnerability rating of each district separately so as to rank districts relatively with-in a state only. The study has provided a methodology to identify the vulnerability of any district/region to climate change and has demonstarted its utility in the identification of vulnerability status of the districts in the Indo-Gangetic Plains. The study has provided vulnerability rank of each district in the following modes: (i) vulnerability rank-wise, (ii) state-wise and (iii) district-wise (in alphabetic order) to make the findings user-friendly. The districts which are most vulnerable to climate change, need support on a higher priority. The findings of the study will be useful for targeting financial resources and be$er management of resources towards adaptive capacity. In the regions, which have been found to be highly vulnerable, policy makers should enact measures to support effective management of environmental resources (e.g., soil, vegetation and water resources); promote increased market participation, especially within the large subsistence farming sector; stimulate both agricultural intensification and diversification of livelihoods away from risky agriculture; and enact programs and extention services on health, education and social welfare, which can help in maintaining and augmenting both physical and intangible human capital.