Cross impact analysis and data mining variable hierarchy of stakeholder responses for sustainable development of Schizothorax fisheries in Kashmir lakes, India

Abstract

This study documented the history of lake fisheries in Kashmir, India, and estimated the trends in fish production using Kane's cross impact analysis (CIA) and stakeholders' willingness to pay (WTP) for the restoration of the Schizothorax fisheries. Kane's CIA model for Lake Dal indicated a perceptible drop in Schizothorax production in the long run, and that the total catch is being maintained by an increasing contribution by carp. In Lake Wular, the CIA indicated that the size of the lake still offers scope for the co-existence and growth of both Schizothorax as well as carp. A Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model was used to data mine multiple stakeholder responses to make a case for sustainable development of the Schizothorax fisheries in the lakes of Kashmir. The amount of time spent on the lakes to earn their livelihoods emerged as the single most important variable that determined WTP by stakeholders followed by income, type of stakeholder and age. The pruned tree gave the hierarchy of the variables that determined WTP. The results made a strong case for a concerted multi-institutional action plan for the restoration of the Schizothorax fisheries in the lakes of Kashmir.