Modeling and Forecasting of Agricultural Commodity Production under Changing Climatic Condition: A Review

Abstract

India is a country with an agrarian economy in which the majority of its population relies on agriculture directly as their source of livelihood. Climate has a very significant role in agricultural production. It predominantly influences the growth of the crop, development of the crop and eventually crop yield. Climate also significantly influences the outbreak of disease and pests; it affects the requirement of water by the crop. Possible changes in weather factors, like precipitation, temperature and CO2 concentration is expected to have a significant impact on crop growth. If farmers are able to predict the weather activities and are aware of the effect of these activities on crop production, then it will be beneficial to them as a feasible plan can be devised synchronizing the crop production activities as per changes in the climatic conditions. In view of tackling the aforementioned problem, this article describes various statistical techniques that can play a crucial role in forecasting the production of agricultural commodities changing climatic conditions.