Prospects of Irrigation in India: Trends, Determinants and Impact on Agricultural Productivity

Abstract

Irrigation has always played a dominant role in agricultural development in India through drought-proofing and enhancing productivity. The present study assesses the inter-regional disparities in the development of irrigation infrastructure and public irrigation investment in India using secondary data collected from various sources from 1992 to 2017. The study also analyses the status and drivers of groundwater extraction using district-level panel data for 535 districts of 16 major agricultural states. To assess the impact of irrigation access on crop productivity, we use data from the nationally representative Situation Assessment Survey of Agricultural Households conducted in 2013. We used a propensity score matching method to estimate the productivity gains from irrigation access, eliminating selection bias on observable differences between farmers with access to irrigation and those who cultivate under rainfed condition. There is a structural shift favouring groundwater irrigation while the share of surface irrigated area has declined. The northern region of India had an impressive performance in irrigation development. Despite abundant water resources, irrigation infrastructure in the eastern region is underdeveloped. The southern region had the highest share of capital investment in public expenditure on surface irrigation development. In the northern region, revenue expenditure accounted for the major share. The cost of creation of irrigation potential was highest in the southern region because of the high cost and time over-runs. The unsustainable groundwater depletion in north western states coexists with the underutilisation in eastern states of the country. The panel data analysis revealed a significant favourable influence of electrified tube well density on the rate of groundwater exploitation. Districts with poor rainfall had a higher rate of groundwater exploitation. The propensity score matching method revealed that irrigation access is beneficial to farmers and would lead to increased crop productivity in India, highlighting the need to expand irrigation coverage further. These findings provide a platform for policy reframing related to sustainable development and management of surface irrigation, rationalising power tariffs for groundwater irrigation, improving irrigation use efficiency and promoting water-efficient cropping pattern in over-exploited districts.