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CSIRO Australia Coastal Sealevel Simulation Hindcast

CSIRO RDS Repository

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Title CSIRO Australia Coastal Sealevel Simulation Hindcast
 
Creator Frank Colberg
 
Subject Climate Change Processes
Natural Hazards
Atmospheric Sciences not elsewhere classified
Physical Oceanography
Climatology (excl. Climate Change Processes)
 
Description Projections of sea level rise (SLR) will lead to increasing coastal impacts during extreme sea level events globally, however, there is significant uncertainty around short-term coastal sea level variability and the attendant frequency and severity of extreme sea level events. In this study, we investigate drivers of coastal sea level variability (including extremes) around Australia by means of historical conditions as well as future changes under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). To do this, a multi-decade hindcast simulation is validated against tide gauge data. The role of tide-surge interaction is assessed and found to have negligible effects on storm surge characteristic heights over most of the coastline. For future projections, a couple of twenty-year long simulations are carried out over the time periods 1981-1999 and 2081-2099 using atmospheric forcing from four CMIP5 climate models. Results provide insights into how future atmospheric circulation changes may impact Australia’s coastal zone and highlight regions of potential sensitivity to atmospheric circulation changes. Areas of note are the Gulf of Carpentaria in the north where changes to the northwest monsoon could lead to relatively large increases in extreme sea levels during Austral summer. For the southern mainland coast the simulated scenarios suggest that a southward movement of the subtropical ridge leads to a small reduction in sea level extremes.

This collections provides sea surface height data from the model forced with CFSR hindcast data.
 
Publisher CSIRO
 
Contributor Kathy McInnes
Julian O'Grady
Ron Hoeke
 
Date 2022-05-02
 
Type —
 
Format —
 
Identifier csiro:29013
 
Language —
 
Coverage —
 
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