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Usability of the Weather Forecast for Tackling Climatic Variability and Its Effect on Maize Crop Yield in Northeastern Hill Region of India

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Title Usability of the Weather Forecast for Tackling Climatic Variability and Its Effect on Maize Crop Yield in Northeastern Hill Region of India
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Creator Debasish Chakraborty
Samarendra Hazarika
 
Subject Forecast reliability, usability, quantitative verification, temperature
 
Description Not Available
Weather forecasts are important for the planning of agricultural operations, especially
during times of heightened climatic variability. This study analyzed and verified the medium-range
weather forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for different weather parameters over four locations in the northeastern hill (NEH) region of India considering five years of daily
datasets. Results revealed good overall accuracy of the forecast over the NEH region. The accuracy
of relative humidity (>80%), rainfall (>79%), and wind speed (>70%) were good, and the accuracy of
temperature was average, with the usability values for maximum temperatures (44.7–62.7%) comparatively better than for minimum temperatures (38.5–58.6%). The correlation coefficient between
the observed and forecasted values was positive (0.24–0.70) and statistically significant for most of
the cases, indicating that the forecast could capture variations. Field experiments for maize crops
showed that a near-real-time weather forecast-based agro-advisory could manage the uncertainties
related to the in-season weather and thereby help in its day-to-day management, which is depicted
by the statistically significant (p < 0.05) improvements in the yield of maize. The accuracy of the
minimum temperature was poor during winter and post-monsoon seasons, when it plays a crucial
role in the determination of optimal growing conditions. Usability of the maximum temperature
needs improvement during the pre-monsoon season, as crop cultivation over the region starts from
this season due to the high probability of assured rainfall. Therefore, the forecasts were found to be
useful but in need of improvement for minimum temperature, which is very crucial for the region.
Not Available
 
Date 2023-06-13T04:58:29Z
2023-06-13T04:58:29Z
2022-10-17
 
Type Research Paper
 
Identifier Not Available
Not Available
http://krishi.icar.gov.in/jspui/handle/123456789/78246
 
Language English
 
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Publisher Not Available