El Nino Effect on Climatic Variability and Crop Production A Case Study for Andhra Pradesh

Abstract

Though agriculture is the backbone of India’s economy, the contribution from farm sector is declining constantly from 57 per cent in 1950-51 to 17.2 per cent in 2008-09. This decline will have a direct impact on the employment opportunities and livelihoods in rural areas. National food security in the backdrop of climate change is a concern for everyone in the society. Extreme weather conditions such as floods, droughts, heat and cold waves, cyclones and hail storms cause huge losses to crop production, but even more subtle fluctuations in weather during critical phases of crop can also have a substantial impact on the ultimate yields. Some of these fluctuations may go unnoticed on a regional scale but the science of Agricultural Meteorology has established that the performance of southwest monsoon in the country has a tele link with El Niño phenomenon. Thus information on the anticipated fluctuations in both monsoon rainfall and the resultant agricultural production prior to the start of the growing season has wider implications for decision making at the farm and policy levels. Regional scenarios anticipated in the event of El Niño help the state administration to mobilize resources and inputs like seeds, fertilizers etc. Therefore an attempt has been made to examine the possibility of using El Niño factor as a signal for climatic variability which can help in moderating any likely adverse effects on crop production with better planning and management. I sincerely hope that there is an urgent need to carry out analogous studies for all those regions where the impact of climatic variability on crop production is significant.