Future challenges in rainfed agriculture In Advances in Plant Atmospheric Interactions

Abstract

Eight hundred million people are food-insecure, and 166 million pre-school children are malnourished in the developing world. Producing enough food, and generating adequate income in the developing world to better feed the poor and reduce the number of those suffering will be a great challenge. This challenge is likely to intensify, with a global population that is projected to increase to 7.8 billion people in 2025, putting even greater pressure on world food security, especially in developing countries where more than 80 percent of the population increase is expected to occur. Irrigated agriculture has been an important contributor to the expansion of national and world food supplies since the 1960s, and is expected to play a major role in feeding the growing world population.However, irrigation accounts for about 72 percent of global and 90 percent of developingcountry water withdrawals, and water availability for irrigation may have to be reduced in many regions in favor of rapidly increasing nonagricultural water uses in industry and households, as well as for environmental purposes. Out of concern over increasing water scarcity for irrigation, the role of water management and investments for irrigated agriculture and food security has received substantial attention in recent years (Hofwegen and Svendsen 2000; Rosegrant 1997). However, rainfed areas currently account for 58 percent of world food production. Given the importance of rainfed cereal production, insufficient attention has been paid to the potential of production growth in rainfed areas to play a significant role in meeting future food demand. This paper examines future prospects for rainfed cereal production, and its importance in the evolving global food system. The paper starts with a critical synthesis of the literature on the prospects for increased rainfed crop production. The review of water management, agricultural research, policy reform, and infrastructure investment for rainfed agriculture is then utilized to develop a “business-as-usual” baseline scenario and a number of alternative scenarios for future growth in rainfed agriculture, explicitly linked to alternative outcomes for the driving forces behind rainfed growth. These scenarios are then implemented in the IMPACT-WATER holistic modeling framework, in order to assess their impact on future global food supply, demand, trade, and prices.