Price Forecasting of Mango in Lucknow Market of Uttar Pradesh

Abstract

The production of high value commodities in India is increasing day by day which helps in developing the Indian agriculture by producing the nutritive products and generate more income through diversification towards high value commodities than earlier. The information technology sector is too important for getting some good value for the produced commodities. Thus the study confirms the need of technology for dissemination of the future prices. The present study was conducted in Lucknow market of Uttar Pradesh as the state ranks first in terms of production of mango. Monthly price data was collected for 23 years from 1993 to 2015 and analysed with E-views 7 software. ARIMA (1, 0, 6) model was found to be best for forecasting the price of mango on the basis of minimum Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz Criterion (SBC). The forecasted value of mango showed an increasing trend of prices in selected market. For more increase in prices of mango in major market of the state, Government of Uttar Pradesh should take some initiative steps to disseminate it among the farmers and reduce post-harvest losses through adopting some good practices.