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http://krishi.icar.gov.in/jspui/handle/123456789/47670| Title: | predicting pest population using weather variables: An Arimax time Series Framework |
| Other Titles: | Not Available |
| Authors: | Prawin Arya Ranjit Kumar paul ANIL KUMAR K. N. Singh N SIVARAMANE Prdeep Chaudary |
| ICAR Data Use Licennce: | http://krishi.icar.gov.in/PDF/ICAR_Data_Use_Licence.pdf |
| Author's Affiliated institute: | ICAR::Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute ICAR::Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute ICAR::Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute ICAR::Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute ICAR::National Academy of Agricultural Research and Management Chaudhary Charan Singh Haryana Agricultural University |
| Published/ Complete Date: | 2015 |
| Project Code: | Not Available |
| Keywords: | ARIMAX Model, Fom:asting. Pest Population, Weather Variables |
| Publisher: | Not Available |
| Citation: | Not Available |
| Series/Report no.: | Not Available; |
| Abstract/Description: | Fumen arc encountenng se•cral is~ m cndea•our to incruse crop productivity. Despite aeveraJ successf \ JI new agricultural technologies related wrtb crop cultivation. India iJ unable to llllin world average mark in ptoductiviry. 0r .. of tho main reuo111 tOr this iJ climaiic conditions and abundance of insects and pests, To mitigate the loss due to pest 1nacb and for better yield, fon:cuting of pest populalion ~on ltlstoricel date end pertinent external cllmotic lnfom1atlon is consi<k'rtd. Autoregressive lntevared Movina A•m~ w11h Exoam011S variables (AR!MAX) hmc·Kries model is applied for modellingand forecesting tho pc$1 populationlfkr testing for stailOMMty. Primaryweekty date (2008-2012) for three pests namely Jassids, WhitcOy and Thrips in Guntur and flridk04 DISlricu along with weekly maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, maximum RH and minimum RH have been used for model denlopment. Evaluation of forccas11ng Is carried out with relative mean 1bsolutc prtchctoon mw (llMAPE). 01agDOStoc test were applied and re$uhs showed tl\.1t maximumtcmperanwand minimum~ •Iona widl mlltimum relallve humldit> have a slJnjfiamt role for Whitefly and Thrips at Ountur district rcspecll•cly. Rainfall was found to be sianillcant 11 Faridkot d1W1ct in case ofThrips. The fittcJ models olong wilh 1he data points ert also presented. A perusal of liaum 1nd1caies 1hat in bolb districts, the populallon of Whllcny is best pA'dlctcd followed by Jasslds and Thrips. |
| Description: | Not Available |
| ISSN: | 0973-1903 |
| Type(s) of content: | Research Paper |
| Sponsors: | Not Available |
| Language: | English |
| Name of Journal: | International Journal of Agricultural and Statistical Sciences |
| NAAS Rating: | 4.92 |
| Volume No.: | 11(2) |
| Page Number: | 381-386 |
| Name of the Division/Regional Station: | Not Available |
| Source, DOI or any other URL: | Not Available |
| URI: | http://krishi.icar.gov.in/jspui/handle/123456789/47670 |
| Appears in Collections: | AEdu-NAARM-Publication |
Files in This Item:
| File | Description | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicting pest population using weather variables.pdf | 721.22 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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