Climate change in Uttarakhand: Projections, vulnerability and farmers’ perceptions

Abstract

Climate change is a likely threat to agriculture, food security and livelihoods of farmers. This paper attempted to (i) convert the climate change projections into agriculturally relevant variables at the district level, (ii) assess the relative vulnerability of districts to climate change,and (iii) understand the farmers’ perceptions about climate change in Uttarakhand. Vulnerability index was computed for the thirteen districts of the state following the IPCC definition of vulnerability. Farmers’ perceptions were examined in a village in Tehri Garhwal district. Results indicated a possible increase in rainfall during June in the districts of Uttarkashi, Dehradun, Tehri Garhwal and Udham Singh Nagar and decrease in Chamoli. Total annual rainfall is expected to increase in Uttarkashi, Dehradun, Tehri Garhwal and Pauri Garhwal. The number of events with more than 100 mm of rainfall in three consecutive days is likely to increase in Uttarkashi, Dehradun, Tehri Garhwal and Pauri Garhwal. The maximum temperature is projected to increase by more than 2.0o C in the northern part of the state. Pithoragarh, Bageshwar and Almora were found to be most vulnerable districts. Majority of farmers felt that climate was changing in the recent decades. Farmers perceived that climate change was a more important problem now and that summers were getting hotter. The findings of the study are useful in planning for adaptation research and extension