Potential changes in number of generations of oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera Dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae) on mango in India in response to climate change scenarios

Abstract

The oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) is a major pest of mango crop in India and the present studies conducted to estimate the number of generations in relation to changing temperature on mango fruits across eight different geographically isolated major mango growing locations of India. The prediction of insect pest generations and generation time was done for baseline (1961 to 1990), present (1969 to 2005), near future (2021 to 2050) and distant future (2071 to 2098) periods using A1B emission scenario data from the regional circulation model (RCM), Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) model. The degree days models using minimum and maximum temperature were used to obtain cumulative degree days (DD) for each generation of B. dorsalis using a temperature threshold of 13°C. It was estimated that faster accumulation of degree days would make possible for occurrence of one or two additional generations with shortened mean life cycle (5 to 7 days less) in near and distant future climate change periods compared to baseline and present periods at majority of locations. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time at majority of mango growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of B. dorsalis may likely to increase due to projected increase in temperatures during future climate change scenarios.