Forecasting marine product exports time- Series analysis

Abstract

A technique using Box-Jenkins model, based on monthly time series, is proposed for forecasting the exports of marine products from India. By demonstrating its application in a sample case, the technique has been shown to prove its eifectiveness to arrive at predictions close' to actuals. The marine fish production in India has gone up from 0.5 million tonnes in the early fifties to 1.4 million tonnes during early and middle seventies, and, after w^hich, stabilized itself at about 1.3 million tonnes. This spectacular increase in the fish production is mainly due to the development of export markets, increased utilization of marine products, better capture techniques and effective postharvest technology evolved through an efficient R&D.