Evaluation of an over-used coastal aquifer (Orissa, India) using statistical approaches

Abstract

This study evaluates an over-exploited aquifer (Balasor, India) and also explores the possibilities of sustainable management using several statistical approaches. First, bootstrap analysis indicates that groundwater pumping has resulted in the reduction of mean cultivated area as the average irrigation capacity per bore well dropped from 3.74 ha to 1.5 ha within a period of 10 years of operation. However, modelling the groundwater levels using the seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) procedure showed no evidence of large-scale groundwater withdrawals. The derived models can be used for water table forecasting and also for infilling the missing observations. The empirical relationship among pumping test results indicated that well depth and aquifer thickness significantly influence the discharge from the aquifer. This discharge may have encouraged the resource-rich farmers to exploit the lower aquifer. Based on a contour plot, the zone of groundwater exploitation was estimated to vary from 25 to 60 m below the surface. Therefore, a uniform aquifer exploitation policy needs to be implemented to curb the vertical competition in exploiting the aquifer and to develop sustainable management of the groundwater.