Climate change analysis in southern Telangana region, Andhra Pradesh using LARS-WG model

Abstract

Weather-generating models are widely used for study ing the climate change over longer periods. LARS-WG model was evaluated for southern Telangana region (Hayathnagar, Yacharam and Rajendranagar). A 30- year base weather data (1980–2010) was used to gene rate the long-term weather series from 2011 to 2060. The results of t and F tests at probability of 5% for comparing means and standard deviations of monthly rainfall and air temperatures indicated that the observed and predicted series for the base period are within acceptable limits. The statistics of model effi ciency indicates that mean monthly rainfall and daily air temperature are close to the predicted series over the base period. The model efficiency was highest in the case of Rajendranagar (98.75%). The root mean square error and sum of square error varied from 0.4 to 1.3 mm and 615 to 1745 mm respectively. The model predicted the maximum increase in average annual rainfall of 5.16% in 2030 and 9.5% in 2060 for Yacharam compared to Hayathnagar and Rajendrana gar over the normal annual rainfall of the base period (1980–2010). However, the model predicted increase in average seasonal rainfall for Hayathnagar (6.2% in 2030 and 8.8% in 2060). In case of air temperature, the model predicted increase in maximum temperature in the range 1–1.53% and 2.5% for 2030 and 2060 re spectively, for these locations whereas minimum tem perature decreased in the range 3.7–10.2% and 6.3– 11.7% respectively, for 2030 and 2060. The perform ance of LARS-WG model was ranked high with maximum model efficiency in all selected mandals of Ranga Reddy district in southern Telangana. This model can be replicated in other mandals of southern Telangana as climate characteristics of the present mandals are similar to other districts in the region.