Dynamics of land‐use changes and its future trends using spatial analysis and CA‐Markov model – A case study with a special emphasis on aquaculture development in India

Abstract

Land resources utilized for aquaculture development have raised many environmental issues worldwide. But no detailed information is available about the land-use changes due to aquaculture in comparison with other land use modifications. Hence, the land-use changes and predictions have been explored in India's leading aquaculture region using multi temporal satellite images (1986-2016), spatial techniques and land change modeling. Agriculture was the largest proportionate land-use in the study area and consistently used for aquaculture and buildings. There is no aquaculture farm in 1986, however, its area has expanded to 12575 ha in 1996 and further increased to 38564 ha (207 %) in 2006. It was then reduced by 36 % in 2016. Agricultural lands have been used for 74 %, 66 %, and 15 % of aquaculture development during 1986-1996, 1996-2006, and 2006-2016 respectively. Scrublands, mudflats have been used for aquaculture growth between 6 and 22 % and 1 - 2 % at different periods of study. Saltpans and mangroves were meagerly used (less than 0.5 %) for aquaculture. Dynamic land-use changes have been observed between agriculture and scrublands. The reconversion to agriculture occurred from the aquaculture area by 20 % and 51 % during 1996-2006 and 2006-2016, respectively. It is predicted that the aquaculture area would further reduce, but agriculture is likely to be used for aquaculture and buildings, despite the existing ban. Land availability is a major limiting factor; thus, it will pose a significant challenge and conflicts in the future if not planned now.