Annual Report

Abstract

The National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (NCAP) worked with a team of 19 scientists (including one ICAR National Professor) and 15 other staff in the year 2009-10. The total expenditure of the Centre, including the externally funded projects, was Rs 612.81 lakh. Research studies of topical nature are conducted at the Centre under five broad themes, viz. technology policy, sustainable agricultural systems, markets and trade, institutional change, and agricultural growth and modelling. Each theme area is headed by a senior professional with support of a small team of scientists working under each theme. Research programmes within and across the themes are so designed as to accomplish the mandate of the Centre. During the year 2009-10, the Centre conducted 37 research studies. Five consultancy and contract research projects have also been completed during the year. The Centre not only maintained but also increased the linkages and collaborations with many institutions in India and abroad. Besides, a good number of training programmes, workshops, seminars, brainstorming sessions, and other policy advocacy programmes were also organised. The research achievements and a glimpse of activities undertaken by NCAP during 2009-10 are reported below. Technology Policy l A study conducted to estimate TFP for major crops at all India level, has revealed that the share of TFP growth in total output growth ranged from 24% to 59% in cereals, 10% to 26% in pulses, 6% to 27% in oilseeds and 32% to 74% in fibre crops during 1975-2005. The unit cost of production has decreased steadily in real terms at the rate of 1.0 to 2.3% for cereals, about 1% each for gram and moong, 0.8 to 2.0% for oilseeds, 1.7% for fibre crops and 0.4% for sugarcane. The lower unit cost of production is considered beneficial for both consumers and producers. l Variation in adoption level of the selected agricultural technologies is an important factor for the variations in agricultural productivity across different states of the country. A study has been conducted to compute state-wise adoption index and identify the factors governing adoption of agricultural technology. The study has revealed that Punjab, Haryana, Tamil nadu and Gujarat are the top-ranking states in adoption of agricultural technology. Analysis has revealed that irrigation facilities, extension, road connectivity, access to formal credit and agricultural wages are the key determinants of adoption of agricultural technologies. Hence, the study has emphasized on the need for infrastructural development to promote adoption of agricultural technologies in the country. l Some studies in frontier areas like Artificial Neural Network (ANN), machine learning based approaches and biotechnology have also been conducted at the Centre. These studies xx National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research have revealed the unexplored potential of such recent techniques in agriculture. ANN has been used to estimate potential evapotranspiration over the Gangetic West Bengal. The results have shown that the ANN performs better than the non-linear regression approach. Machine learning based approaches have resulted in 85% accurate prediction of powdery mildew of mango (PWM). Further, the resulting model has been found easy to understand and simple to implement by the stakeholders. l A study on brinjal has revealed that intensive use of fertilizers, HYV seeds, irrigation and pest management has resulted in significant improvement in yield of brinjal during the period 1981-2008. l The study on impact assessment of micro and secondary nutrients in Karnataka has demonstrated large scope in raising production and farm income by correcting deficiencies of micro and secondary nutrients in Indian soils. l A case study on organic cultivation of basmati paddy has shown that there is some yield reduction due to shift from conventional to organic paddy across all farm categories. However, yield reduction starts narrowing after the second year of conversion. It reaches around 10 per cent at the end of in-conversion period. Yield reduction during transition to organic paddy has been observed higher at large farms because small and medium farmers provide intensive care and manage field and crop better than that by large farmers. The average variable cost of in-conversion process of organic basmati paddy farming is higher than that of conventional basmati paddy farming. The transition to organic farming is very taxing for the farmers to manage without financial assistance. After transition, gross and net profits of fully "organic" produce increased rapidly and turned higher than from conventional crop because agribusiness company paid premium price on organic paddy, which was 25 per cent more than the open market price of basmati paddy. l Impact assessment study of fishery sector has shown that science and technology is the primary contributer to the growth of over 800% growth in fishery in the past 55 years. Market has not worked as a major driver for the growth of the sector so far. Sustainable Agricultural Systems l A study on land-use dynamics has revealed that a large number of land shifts have taken place from undesirable part of the ecological sector to non-agricultural sector at allIndia level. On an average, with increase of one person in population, the land under non-agricultural uses has increased between 0.011 hectares and to 0.027 hectares during different decades from 1950s to 2000s. l The study on SRI, conducted in Tamil Nadu, has revealed that it can save 39% water over the normal practice. Upscaling of SRI in favourable areas can effectively address the problem of water shortage for irrigation and household food-security in the country. xxi Annual Report 2009-10 l A study on "Biofuels" has revealed that development of the biofuel sector in India is very slow and blending targets of both ethanol and biodiesel look unfeasible, at least in the frame of 2017. Thus, research thrust to develop technologies of second generation biofuels needs to gain momentum. The findings of the study have suggested the use of sweet sorghum and sugar beet to substitute sugarcane-based ethanol production. Sweet sorghum is pro-poor crop in marginal and rainfed areas. Hence, government and private entrepreneurial efforts need to be fine-tuned and directed towards it. l A study to achieve improved livelihood security through resource conservation and diversified farming systems in Mewat region (Haryana) has revealed that common problems of the area include depletion of groundwater, insufficient supply of water, lack of HYV seeds, duplicate pesticides, termite problem in growing of crops, labour shortage and destruction by Nilgais. Hence, demand driven interventions are needed in Mewat. l A study on valuation of fish genetic resources has recognized economic value of aquatic genetic resources. A better understanding of the functional relationship between aquatic genetic resources and their services would allow an accurate estimation of the value of biodiversity conservation in our country. Markets and Trade l During the past one decade, the consumption of wheat products has shown upward trend in urban areas, particularly in the southeren states of India. The demand projections suggest that the total demand for wheat in India would reach around 78.6 Mt by 2011-12, 85.64 Mt by 2016-17 and 93.4 Mt by 2021-22. l Large variations have been found in milk production, marketing and supply chains in India across regions. Modern milk supply chain is quite important in agriculturally developed states like Punjab, while the traditional milk marketing supply chain is still prevalent in Bihar. Landless and small farmers face few, if any, barriers in India's milk markets. Education, milk price, milk test and presence of co-operative milk collection centres in the villages have significant positive influence on farmer's decision to integrate with modern formal milk marketing supply chain. l Exports of shrimp from India have registered positive growth during 1995-96 to 2006-07. Frozen squid and frozen cuttle fish have exhibited moderate growth rates, whereas dried items and chilled items have registered growth in double digits. The study on fish marketing has shown the need to formulate a uniform market policy for fishes so that it becomes easier in operation and regulation. Institutional Changes l A study on structural changes in landholdings has revealed that the number of smallholdings increased by 99 per cent in 2000-01, compared to that in 1970-71 and smallholdings, area xxii National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research increased by 84%. These have implications on issues like input use, and output portfolio of Indian agriculture and food security of the country. l Performance of agricultural credit in India has revealed that the share of scheduled commercial banks, co-operative banks and regional rural banks in the institutional agricultural credit flow during 2008-09 was 73%, 17% and 10%, respectively. Institutional agricultural credit has increased fifteen-fold in real terms during the period 1970-2008. However, the distribution of institutional credit across farm-size categories is skewed. The majority of farmers (82%) account for only 50% of the institutional credit, on the other hand, 18% of the farmers having more than 2 hectares land account for 49% of the institutional credit. Age, gender, farm size, education and occupation of the household are the significant determinants of farmers' access to institutional credit. l Debt Waiver and Debt Relief Scheme has benefited a smallholder by Rs 27,000/- in the sample area of Haryana state. Deterioration in financial discipline to repay the loan has been observed to be a serious implication of the scheme. Farmers feel that incentives on inputs, availability of power, off-farm employment and better prices of their produce will help them to repay their loans. l Long-term monsoon trends have shown that drought is experienced at least once in 5 years in all the Indian statess except North-East states. A multi-pronged strategy to deal with recurrent monsoon deficiency requires exploration of newer drought-tolerant and climate-conducive crop varieties, enhancing employment opportunities to non-poor households, and developing a new model that improves the efficacy of the IMD forecast. l A decision tree has been developed in NCAP using data mining techniques to characterize ICT-empowered women farmers in India. The study has recommended that the status of education should be improved in villages, more income opportunities should be provided to farm women and appropriate technologies should be developed for providing ICT empowerment to farm women. Agricultural Growth and Modelling l In order to understand regional variations in agricultural performance and its correlates, district level estimates of crop productivity, including horticultural crops have been prepared for all the agricultural districts of India. The study has also compiled at one place information on important agro-economic characteristics like rainfall, irrigation, fertiliser use, poverty level, etc. for each district. District-based data indicates that 1% increase in land productivity reduces poverty by 0.65%. Further, 1% reduction in labour force in agriculture results in 0.57% decline in rural poverty. Thus, the study has highlighted the need for reducing pressure on land by shifting labour force from agriculture to non-farm activities. xxiii Annual Report 2009-10 l Average food inflation during the period 2006-2009 has been more than 80% higher than inflation in non-food commodities. It is because growth in food output is following a deceleration. Dependence on productivity of food growth is rising which in turn involves increase in the average cost of production. This implies that growth in food output is driven by increase in food prices. To keep food inflation at a low level, we need to take strong action to develop and disseminate improved technologies for raising food production. l Challenges in ensuring food security through wheat has highlighted that slow down in wheat production is caused by both slow down in productivity growth and decline in area under wheat since 1986. The study has concluded that if growth rate in wheat production is not raised by more than 50%, a serious imbalance would emerge. The challenge to improve production of wheat are global warming, threat of pests and diseases, declining relative production and profitability and stress on natural resources like land and water. Meeting these challenges requires development of appropriate technologies and strong R&D support. l A study on rural urban linkage has emphasized that 10% growth in urban consumption was associated with 4.6% growth in agriculture income and 4.9% growth in rural nonfarm employment. Further, a 10% increase in rural non-farm employment has been found to result in 8.3% increase in income of an agricultural worker. Thus, there is a need to understand the impact of urban growth on rural agriculture and rural non-farm sectors and impact of growth of rural non-farm sector on farm sector. The NCAP website available at http://www.ncap.res.in is regularly updated during the year. Recent NCAP publications were made available in the PDF format for downloading from the website. Data has revealed that policy briefs, workshop proceedings and policy papers were frequently referred by the visitors on the NCAP website. The ARIS facility at the Centre has been equipped with 2 MBPS leased line from ERNET to strengthen the existing E-mail and Internet facilities to NCAP staff. The Centre has its independent email server which is being used to its potential. As a part of the dissemination of research output, the Centre has published two policy briefs, one policy paper, one book, thirty-two journal articles and thirty-one book chapters/popular articles during the year. The Centre's staff was involved in a number of professional and policy interactions and projects. The Centre organized one winter school, six training programmes and several meetings at NCAP and outside. These activities could facilitate achieving of greater impact and wider visibility of the Centre during the year.