Annual Report

Abstract

The National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research has completed 15 years of its existence, having being established in 1991. It continued its pursuit for excellence in agricultural research and policy interface and achieved wider visibility in the current year. The Centre at present has 16 scientists (including one National Fellow) and 14 other staff in position. The budgetary outlay of the Centre for the year 2005-06 was Rs 390.59 lakh. = A high level Research Advisory Committee provides guidance to the Centre in its research programmes, and a Management Committee oversees the overall research administration of the Centre. In addition, a number of internal committees facilitate the decentralized management of the Centre s activities. Research at the Centre is conducted under five broad themes, viz. technology policy, sustainable agricultural systems, markets and trade, institutional change, and agricultural growth and modelling. Each theme is headed by a senior professional. The salient research achievements during 2005-06 are summarized below: = Impact of research in the NARS is assessed in terms of scientific outputs -- publications and technologies -- which are main outputs of agricultural research. The results revealed an increasing trend in the total number of publications during 1990s as compared to that in 1980s. However, a majority of these publications (about 80 per cent) have been published in non-SCI (Science Citation Index) journals with zero impact factor. Only a small proportion of these publications have the impact factor greater than zero but less than two. The tendency of agricultural scientists to publish in low-rating journals is a matter of concern. As regards technologies, a large number of crop varieties for different production environments along with improved production practices, resource conserving and environmentally-safe technologies have been developed. Such technologies have also been developed for livestock, poultry and fish, but because of capital intensiveness, their acceptance has been limited, causing a scale bias. A high pay-off to investment in agricultural research has been observed and it is a win-win option to improve total factor productivity (TFP) and alleviate rural poverty. Moreover, deceleration in agricultural growth since the mid-1990s, has underscored the need for acceleration of technology flow to farmers, which emphasized higher investment in R&D. = Declining production and productivity growth of rice, particularly from the mid-1990s has been a major concern. On account of limited possibility of horizontal expansion, increasing productivity is a critical challenge to the agricultural researchers and policymakers. Productivity can be increased by both technological means and/or manipulation of farmers practices. A study on an innovative practice of rice production, called System of Rice Intensification (SRI), is underway to understand the socio-economic dimensions of its adoption. A detailed survey of 300 farmers is being conducted in the southern states of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, where most encouragingly, the governments have not only approved NATIONAL CENTRE FOR AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AND POLICY RESEARCH xii Annual Report 2005-2006 and implemented the SRI but are also popularizing it among the farmers. The focus is on quantification of the gains due to yield increase, water conservation, enhanced biological dynamics in soil and plants, savings in seed, and social acceptance. The adoption of SRI internationally has shown a phenomenal speed, covering from a single country of Madagaskar in 1995 to nearly 24 countries around the world today. The advantages of SRI include capacity to generate additional rice yield of 1-2 t/ha as compared to the existing best practices; and orientation towards small farmer which potentially ensures household foodsecurity and resource-conservation. Therefore, this practice is being looked at as a boon to rice-growing farmers, especially smallholders. = The pattern of changes in rice production systems and their policy imperatives have been assessed. An inverted bowl-shaped growth curve has been observed in rice production during the past couple of decades. The down-syndrome if not reversed, is likely to threaten the food-security in the country. The inter-regional disparity in rice productivity could be more damaging as has been evidenced from findings at the disaggregated level. The gains due to modern rice technology have been discriminatory against the resourcepoor areas dominated by small and marginal farmers. The inter-state variations in rice productivity have been quite pervasive, and show sharp differences between irrigated and rainfed systems. The empirical evidence has suggested that stagnation in rice production is due to decline in area and productivity in the core green revolution areas. Farmers are likely to adopt the technology/practice faster, if the productivity-enhancing and resourceconserving properties could be embedded on it. In this context, the rainfed areas have demonstrated high potentialities for development of rice production system. To exploit this potential in the vast rainfed areas of eastern India, a shift in policy paradigm has been suggested to build a stronger ground for increasing production. It has been observed that besides the yield increasing technology, issues of input-use efficiency, agricultural diversification and efficient implementation of developmental programmes need to be addressed to achieve higher agricultural growth. = Oilseed is an important component of crop production in Indian agriculture. The continued decline in its production after mid-1990s and yield fluctuations has critical macro-economic implications in the country. The production behaviour of four major oilseeds, viz. groundnut, rapeseed/mustard, sunflower and soybean has been analyzed to understand the instability and supply response in production of oilseeds. The analysis has indicated lack of trend in yield instability, prices and gross returns, while covariate risk has increased. The econometric analysis has further indicated that expected price and price risk are important determinants of oilseeds production. Price risk has the direct influence on the production decision and acreage allocation by the farmers. = Since early-1980s growth in crop production in the rainfed areas has mainly been due to yield growth. The patterns of growth and variability in yield in the rainfed regions are diverse and could be managed through better crop care. To manage the shortfall in yield NATIONAL CENTRE FOR AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AND POLICY RESEARCH Annual Report 2005-2006 xiii and income of this region both ex-ante and ex-post measures are essential. Ex-post measures include foodgrains distribution and employment generation; these should be strengthened and made pro-poor. Among other measures, crop insurance, institutional credit, and product diversification towards horticultural crops suited to the region could be developed and implemented. = The role of livestock sector in agricultural growth and poverty reduction is well established. In India, small farmers control 70 to 90 per cent of the livestock population and have considerable potential to contribute to agricultural growth, leading to poverty reduction. Study has revealed that the states of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Haryana, Punjab and Maharashtra have performed better in both livestock production and poverty reduction during 1983-84 to 1997-98 as compared to that by Assam, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. = Feed and fodder are important prerequisites of proper livestock development. An estimation of feed and fodder has been made by species, age, sex, and type of functions in 10 livestock regions of India during 2001-02. Livestock consumed 420 million tonnes of green roughages, 510 million tonnes of dry roughages, and 55 million tonnes of concentrates. About 12 per cent of foodgrains is also used as feed, although the National Commission on Agriculture has assumed that only 2 per cent coarse cereals should be fed to animals. = India s livestock population is one of the largest in the world. It has come under scrutiny and severe criticism for its contribution to greenhouse gas emission. However, another study undertaken during 2001-02, has revealed some positive contributions also of livestock to environment. = Despite revolutionary progress in milk production in India, the productivity of milch animals is low and there is enormous loss of attainable output. The economic losses in dairy production have been estimated along with identification of constraints in a study undertaken during 2002-03 in 54 villages spread over 9 states, viz. Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Karnataka, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. The economic losses in dairy output have been found about 26 per cent of the total attainable output. By species, loss is maximum in the case of indigenous cows (38 per cent), followed by buffaloes and crossbred cows. Feed scarcity has been observed the most important constraint, followed by breeding problems and health and management aspects. Infertility has been found an important problem for indigenous cows, while long inter-calving period is the main problem for buffaloes. In addition, lack of green fodder has been observed as the most critical nutrition constraint, followed by mineral deficiency in dairy production. The major diseases include Mastitis, Foot and Mouth Disease, Brucellosis, and Theileriosis. = The Indian seed system has undergone a tremendous change. New Seed Policy and economic reforms have provided enormous opportunities to the private seed sector. At present, this sector shares a large proportion of seeds of cotton, rice, maize, and vegetables. However, NATIONAL CENTRE FOR AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AND POLICY RESEARCH xiv Annual Report 2005-2006 their participation in crops of groundnut and potato has been very low. This has been because of requirement of high investment, low profit margin, and voluminous nature of these crops. The study has reported that a majority of the farmers get information about new crop varieties from the fellow farmers/farm-input dealers. This shows the functional inefficiency of public extension and seed system. This emphasizes the need for technological backstopping, developing partnership with private and civil societies. A need has been found for developing institutional capacity for enforcement of seed regulations and protection of intellectual property rights. = The analysis of seed laws of 13 Asian countries in the wake of WTO regime has concluded that the seeds of notified varieties must be regulated and certified. The amendments in the seed laws provide incentives to the local seed companies and encourage participation of private sector in the seed market. It also guarantees better access to overseas markets. = Information and communication technology (ICT) is one of the potential options to provide the needed information to farmers at the right time and affordable cost. A study of three ICT initiatives---e-Choupal, I-Kisan and Helpline---has revealed that by using these services, a farmer could save in his/her travelling time and in turn transaction cost, between 90 and 95 per cent, and could benefit by taking timely decision to sell his farm output and may fetch a better price. The lessons derived from this study of ICT-based initiatives could be helpful in upscaling and increasing the overall profitability. = India has the rich tradition of having peoples institutions in the rural areas. A strong institution is the root of rural prosperity. If adequately replicated, such institutions could be the potential agents of change in the rural life. Notwithstanding the importance of these institutions, farmers have been deprived of access to information, technology, etc. due to neglect of these institutions, leading to production risks. The need for an efficient rural institution has been argued because development without human face is believed to weaken the prospects of livelihood. Therefore, clarity is essential on the rules of the game to sharpen our understanding about complexity of institutions, their strengths and weaknesses. This would facilitate in replicating the success story. = Demand for urea by the year 2011 has been projected under different scenarios. Under the scenario, business as usual , the demand for urea has been projected to increase by 3.4 per cent per annum to reach 24.96 million tonnes as compared to 19.06 million tonnes during 2002-03. Under the scenario subsidies remain same , the demand for urea has been projected as 24.12 million tonnes with an increasing rate of about 3 per cent. Under third scenario, both expansion in irrigated area (1 per cent) and gross cropped area (0.25 per cent) , the demand for urea is expected to increase by about 4 per cent annually which corresponds to 26.30 million tonnes. One more scenario has been visualized to attain 4 per cent growth in agricultural output with full exploitation of irrigation potential and 2 per cent increase in HYVs. This scenario would require 4.6 per cent annual growth and the demand has been projected to be 27.45 million tonnes. Therefore, demand for urea by 2011 would vary NATIONAL CENTRE FOR AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AND POLICY RESEARCH Annual Report 2005-2006 xv between 24.1 million tonnes at low growth output to 27.4 million tonnes at relatively high growth output. = Crop and livestock sectors are the two major sub-sectors of agriculture. As the economy develops, the contribution of primary sector (particularly income from crop output) declines. The same has been the case in Indian agriculture since independence. Analysis has shown that during 1980s and 1990s, the share of crop sector in total agricultural output has declined, while that of livestock and fisheries has increased. This implies that agriculture is diversifying towards high-value livestock and fisheries commodities. Among the factors promoting agricultural growth, investment in R&D, trade and economic reforms have been identified as crucial. = Increased growth performance in agriculture is essential for the growth of economy. The performance of agriculture sector in India since mid-1990s has sharply decelerated despite the country aiming at 4 per cent annual growth. To put agriculture on the targeted growth trajectory, the potential sources of growth have been studied. The analysis has shown high variability in crop-output growth, being lowest in Punjab (less than 1 per cent) and highest in Bihar (above 6 per cent). The growth in crop output has observed as 1-2 per cent in Haryana and Rajasthan, and more than 5 per cent in Maharashtra, Himachal Pradesh, and West Bengal. To achieve 4 per cent growth in crop output, India needs to increase fertilizer application by 4.35 per cent and irrigation by 1.95 per cent. Besides, a shift in area of about 0.5 per cent to other than foodgrains and growth in TFP of 0.72 per cent per annum are also required to achieve this target. = The number of female students in agriculture education has been non-uniform across states in india. A study carried out in 10 SAUs has shown that proportion of female students varied from 49 per cent in Kerala to 5 per cent in Uttar Pradesh. It has been found that addressing the issues of transportation, accommodation and security would potentially increase the number of female students in agricultural education. = Indian agriculture is stated to be increasingly vulnerable to abnormal situations, leading to high variability in production. Agricultural insurance is one of the instruments to protect farmers from such a vulnerability. Despite considerable efforts, the coverage under insurance schemes has been very small. A study on problems and prospects of agricultural insurance in India is underway and is expected to suggest strategies to make agricultural insurance schemes more effective with wide coverage. = To identify households vulnerable to food shortage, a dynamic rough set based decision tree (RDT) model has been developed and tested. The analysis carried out using linear discriminant analysis (LDA) technique as a benchmark for comparing accuracy of RDT model, has shown the RDT model to be better than LDA method. NATIONAL CENTRE FOR AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AND POLICY RESEARCH xvi Annual Report 2005-2006 = Under a study on fore-warning of crop diseases, the potential of three machine learning techniques, viz. decision tree (DT) induction, rough set (RS) and RS based DT induction (RDT) has been studied against the traditional logistic regression (LR) technique to test the accuracy of timely forecasting of incidence and crop loss from powdery mildew in mango. This is a devastating disease and causes yield losses between 22 and 90 per cent. The results of machine-learning techniques have been found better than those of LR technique. = The Centre has been actively involved in the preparation of Project Implementation Plan for NAIP and provided lot of inputs at various stages of project preparation. The NCAP website available at http://www.ncap.res.in has been redesigned and updated. The NCAP publications are now available in the PDF format and can be downloaded. The website for Networking of Social Scientists, http://www.agrieconet.nic.in is facilitating research, resource-sharing and optimization of response time for addressing methodology-related problems. The ARIS facility at the Centre has been equipped with 128 kbps leased line from ERNET to provide the E-mail and Internet facilities to NCAP staff. The Centre has now its independent mail server which is being used to its potential. As a part of dissemination of research output, the Centre and its staff has published one Policy Paper, three Policy Briefs and five books during the current year. The Centre s staff has been involved in a number of professional and policy interactions and projects and also organized several meetings at NCAP and outside. It has also collaborated with a number of national and international research organizations. These activities could facilitate achieving of greater impact and wider visibility by the Centre in the current year.