Sensitivity of wheat yields to rise in growing season temperature: Evidences from panel data analysis

Abstract

The impact of climate change on agriculture is well studied yet there is scope for improvement as crop specific and location specific impacts need to be assessed realistically to frame adaptation and mitigation strategies to lessen the adverse effects of climate change. Many researchers have tried to estimate potential impact of climate change on wheat yields using indirect crop simulation modeling techniques. Here, this study estimated the potential impact of climate change on wheat yields using a crop specific panel data set from 1981 to 2010,for six major wheat producing states. The study revealed that 1°C increase in average maximum temperature during the growing season reduces wheat yield by 3 percent. Major share of wheat growth and yield (79%) is attributed to increase in usage of physical inputs specifically fertilizers, machine labour and human labour. The estimated impact was lesser than previously reported studies due to the inclusion of wide range of short-term adaptation strategies to climate change. The results reiterate the necessity of including confluent factors like physical inputs while investigating the impact of climate factors on crop yields.