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http://krishi.icar.gov.in/jspui/handle/123456789/76447| Title: | Development and evaluation of seasonal rainfall forecasting (SARIMA) model for Kumaon region of Uttarakhand |
| Other Titles: | Not Available |
| Authors: | Utkarsh Kumar Dhirendra Kumar Singh Suresh Chandra Panday Jaideep Kumar Bisht Lakshmi Kant |
| ICAR Data Use Licennce: | http://krishi.icar.gov.in/PDF/ICAR_Data_Use_Licence.pdf |
| Author's Affiliated institute: | ICAR::Vivekananda Parvatiya Krishi Anusandhan Sansthan ICAR::Indian Agricultural Research Institute |
| Published/ Complete Date: | 2022-11-01 |
| Project Code: | Not Available |
| Keywords: | AIC Himalaya Precipitation Prediction SARIMA |
| Publisher: | Not Available |
| Citation: | Not Available |
| Series/Report no.: | Not Available; |
| Abstract/Description: | Not AvailaRainfall is an important parameter for water resources application particularly in rainfed agricultural system. Rainfall in Himalaya varies from palace to place due to complex topography and it is hard to predict based on empirical formula. The objective of the present study is to develop seasonal auto regressive integrative moving average (SARIMA) model for Almora, Hawlbagh and Mukteshwar station located in Kumaon region of Uttarakhand and to determine the accuracy of the developed model in the same region. The present research utilized univariate time series rainfall model to forecast rainfall in Kumon region. We have selected the best SARIMAmodel fitted to our data which exhibited the least akaike information criterion (AIC) and bayesian information criterion (BIC) values. Finally, we identified the best model separately for each location after following three Box-Jenkings methodologies (model identification, elimination of parameters and diagnostic checking). The selected model is evaluated for residual normality test and observed data. The performance statistics of the developed SARIMAmodels for monthly scale were found for Almora (RMSE = 26.55 mm, MAE 2 2 = 22.77 mm, R = 0.86), Hawalbagh (RMSE = 33.66 mm, MAE = 25.63 mm, R = 0.82) 2 and Mukteshwar (RMSE = 35.62 mm, MAE = 28.45 mm, R = 0.81). The performance parameter of the developed models showed that the forecast result mimics well with the observed rainfall data and also captures the extreme events well.ble |
| Description: | Not Available |
| ISSN: | Not Available |
| Type(s) of content: | Article |
| Sponsors: | Not Available |
| Language: | English |
| Name of Journal: | Indian Journal of soil conservation |
| Journal Type: | Included NAAS journal list |
| NAAS Rating: | 5.28 |
| Volume No.: | 50(3) |
| Page Number: | 190-198 |
| Name of the Division/Regional Station: | Crop Production Division |
| Source, DOI or any other URL: | Not Available |
| URI: | http://krishi.icar.gov.in/jspui/handle/123456789/76447 |
| Appears in Collections: | CS-VPKAS-Publication |
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