Growth, Instability And Trends In Area, Production And Productivity Of Coconuts In India

Abstract

The present study was carried out to examine the current trends in major coconut producing countries in the world and India from 1990 to 2018. It focuses mainly on the growth performance of coconut area harvested, production and productivity in the top ten countries in the world and estimation of projected trends in coconut crop, especially in India. Growth rate, Instability index, ARIMA and Exponential model were used to examine the data. Production (5.85%), productivity (6.13%) were high in Brazil and the area harvested in Myanmar during the study period. The annual growth rate of production, productivity and area harvested of coconut in India were 1.67%, 0.44% and 1.22%, respectively, during the study period. Globally, area harvested, production and productivity have stabilized in the top 10 coconut producing countries, including India. The coconut production, productivity and area harvested data of India for the period of 1990 to 2018 were analyzed using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and the Exponential smoothing model was used to project trends for the next three years from 2019-2021. After analyzing the data for stationarity, the suitable time-series models were chosen based on various goodness of fit criteria, viz. Akaike’s Information Criterion, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Trends in area harvested, production and productivity were analyzed based on time series models using ARIMA. By using the best model, the area harvested, production and productivity were projected for three years. It reveals that there was an increase in productivity and production for the next three years, and a decrease in area harvested were forecasted.