Technology Forecasting in Fisheries Sector: Cross Impact Analysis and Substitution Modeling

Abstract

Fisheries sector in India has made giant strides in recent years and its role in increasing food supply, generating job opportunities, raising nutritional level and earning foreign exchange need hardly be emphasized. Its future is likely to be much different from what it is now. New upcoming technologies and resources are expected to be different from what these are now which would require reconciliations of conflicting socio-economic and environmental objectives and trade-offs. Significant development in fisheries has been made possible by technological progress and policy changes. However, in the context of increasing globalization and emergence of new markets, the future of Indian fisheries is bound to be influenced. It is therefore imperative to articulate technological needs of different aspects of fishing and fish processing and contemplate how developments in science and policy can help to address these needs. For this, applications of two chief tools from the field of Technology Forecasting (TF) have been employed in the domain of fisheries. Of the TF tools available, two techniques viz., Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) technique and Substitution modeling were attempted in the field of fisheries. One of CIA techniques viz., Kane’s simulation model was employed to study the long-term dynamics of production (marine), imports and exports of Indian fish commodities. In addition, by considering global production of P. vannamei shrimp species and other shrimp species over time, substitution models viz., Pearl and Gompertz were fitted to ascertain the time period required for the emerging species to replace the traditional ones. The analogy between the CIA model used and substitution models are also explained. To sum up, it has been demonstrated that TF can give incisive insights that can aid decision makers to plan strategies in transforming expected outcomes to preferred futures.