Impact of introduction of crafts with outboard engines on marine fish production in Kerala and Karnataka – a study through Intervention analysis

Abstract

In the recent years, the contribution from outboard sector is a major component in the total marine fish production from the states of Kerala and Karnataka. This is as a result of the introduction of crafts fitted with outboard engines for propulsion in the mid eighties, which intensified and developed into a major sector. The impact of this intervention is examined here by adopting two popular time series methods used for intervention analysis. The first method is based on seasonal ARIMA modeling and the second is based on regression modeling with ARMA type errors. Quarterwise total marine fish landings in the two states during 1960-2000 were used for the impact study. The analysis revealed that for Kerala the model found suitable is seasonal ARIMA type model and for Karnataka the feasible model was regression model with ARMA errors. Based on the final estimated intervention models, the effect of the interventions was estimateds as 2.26 lakh tonnes and 88 thousand tonnes per annum respectively for Kerala and Karnataka.