Computer simulation modeling for prediction of the extent of adoption of shrimp culture technologies (This paper is the part of the Ph.D thesis which got Jawaharlal Nehru Award 2006 for Outstanding Research in Social Sciences)

Abstract

Computer Simulation Modeling was used to Predict/forecast the extent of adoption of Shrimp Culture technologies by Shrimp farmers. The adoption behaviour of 120 Shrimp farmers was studied for the years ranging from 1997 to 2003 and the data was used to predict/ forecast the adoption behaviour for the years 2004 to 2020. The forecast values generated by the Baal Strap Computer Simulation model suggested a gradual increase in the overall extent of adoption from 2004 onwards which rises to reach a maximum value of 85.81 per cent in 2010. From 2011 onwards the model predicts a gradual decrease in the overall extent of adoption and continues to show th is trend until in 2020 the overall extent of adoption reaches 80.53 per cent. Besides, the model generated a goodness-of- fit value of 0.984 7 which indicated that the model explained 98.47 per cent of the prediction / forecasting of the overall extent of adoption of Shrimp culture technologies.