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Ex-ante Impact Assessment of Drought Tolerant Sorghum Cultivars under Future Climates: Integrated Modeling approach

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Relation http://oar.icrisat.org/7347/
 
Title Ex-ante Impact Assessment of Drought Tolerant Sorghum Cultivars under Future Climates: Integrated Modeling approach
 
Creator Nedumaran, S
Bantilan, M C S
Abinaya, P
Mason-D’Croz, D
Ashok Kumar, A
 
Subject Sorghum
 
Description An integrated modeling framework – IMPACT – which integrates partial equilibrium economic model,
hydrology model, crop simulation model and climate model was used to examine the ex-ante economic
impact of developing and disseminating a drought tolerant sorghum cultivar in target countries of Africa
and Asia. The impact of drought tolerant sorghum technology on production, consumption, trade flow
and prices of sorghum in target and non-target countries were analyzed. And also we estimated the
returns to research investment for developing the promising new drought tolerant cultivars and
dissemination in the target countries. The analysis indicates that development and release of drought
tolerant sorghum in the target countries of Asia and Africa would provide a net economic benefit of
about 1476.8 million US$ for the entire world under no climate change condition. Under climate change
scenarios the net benefits derived from adoption of new drought tolerant sorghum cultivar is higher
than the no climate change condition. This is due to higher production realized by sorghum under
climate change scenarios. The results imply that substantial economic benefits can be achieved from the
development of a drought tolerant sorghum cultivar. And also this technology will perform better than
the existing cultivars in future climate change condition.
 
Publisher Springer
 
Date 2013
 
Type Book Section
PeerReviewed
 
Format application/pdf
 
Language en
 
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Identifier http://oar.icrisat.org/7347/1/Ex-ante_ImpactAssessment_Nedmaran_etal_Chap_2013.pdf
Nedumaran, S and Bantilan, M C S and Abinaya, P and Mason-D’Croz, D and Ashok Kumar, A (2013) Ex-ante Impact Assessment of Drought Tolerant Sorghum Cultivars under Future Climates: Integrated Modeling approach. In: Vulnerability of Agriculture, Water and Fisheries to Climate Change: Toward Sustainable Adaptation Strategies. Springer, pp. 1-22.