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Creating long-term weather data from thin air for crop simulation modeling

OAR@ICRISAT

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Relation http://oar.icrisat.org/9057/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.02.020
 
Title Creating long-term weather data from thin air for crop simulation modeling
 
Creator Wart, J V
Grassini, P
Yang, H
Claessens, L
Jarvis, A
Cassman, K G
 
Subject Climate Change
 
Description Simulating crop yield and yield variability requires long-term, high-quality daily weather data, including
solar radiation, maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin), and precipitation. In many regions,
however, daily weather data of sufficient quality and duration are not available. To overcome this limitation,
we evaluated a new method to create long-term weather series based on a few years of observed daily
temperature data (hereafter called propagated data). The propagated data are comprised of uncorrected
gridded solar radiation from the Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource dataset from the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA–POWER), rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring
Mission (TRMM) dataset, and location-specific calibration of NASA–POWER Tmax and Tmin using a limited
amount of observed daily temperature data. The distributions of simulated yields of maize, rice, or wheat
with propagated data were compared with simulated yields using observed weather data at 18 sites in
North and South America, Europe, Africa, and Asia. Other sources of weather data typically used in crop
modeling for locations without long-term observed weather data were also included in the comparison:
(i) uncorrected NASA–POWER weather data and (ii) generated weather data using the MarkSim weather
generator. Results indicated good agreement between yields simulated with propagated weather data
and yields simulated using observed weather data. For example, the distribution of simulated yields
using propagated data was within 10% of the simulated yields using observed data at 78% of locations
and degree of yield stability (quantified by coefficient of variation) was very similar at 89% of locations. In
contrast, simulated yields based entirely on uncorrected NASA–POWER data or generated weather data
using MarkSim were within 10% of yields simulated using observed data in only 44 and 33% of cases,
respectively, and the bias was not consistent across locations and crops. We conclude that, for most locations,
3 years of observed daily Tmax and Tmin data would allow creation of a robust weather data set for
simulation of long-term mean yield and yield stability of major cereal crops.
 
Publisher Elsevier
 
Date 2015
 
Type Article
PeerReviewed
 
Format application/pdf
 
Language en
 
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Identifier http://oar.icrisat.org/9057/1/AFM_209%E2%80%93210_49%E2%80%9358_2015.pdf
Wart, J V and Grassini, P and Yang, H and Claessens, L and Jarvis, A and Cassman, K G (2015) Creating long-term weather data from thin air for crop simulation modeling. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 209-10 (1). pp. 49-58. ISSN 0168-1923