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From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots

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Relation http://eprints.cmfri.org.in/10744/
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13247/pdf
 
Title From global to regional and back again: common climate
stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation
across five ocean warming hotspots
 
Creator Popova, Ekaterina E
Yool, Andrew
Byfield, Valborg
Cochrane, Kevern
Coward, A C
Shyam, S Salim
Gasalla, Maria A
Henson, S A
Hobday, A J
Pecl, Gretta T
Sauer, Warwick
Roberts, Michael
 
Subject Climate change
 
Description Ocean warming ‘hotspots’ are regions characterized by above-average temperature increases over recent years, for
which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As
such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test-beds
for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of
eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large
international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and
projecting the likely future of coastal-marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To
inform this effort, we employ a high-resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway
8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient
supply, primary production, anthropogenic CO2-driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation.
Our simulation finds that the temperature-defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but,
with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the
strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally,
we find that recent rapid change in SST is not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other
climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced
by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further
strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct
feature of present and future climate change impacting marine ecosystems in these areas.
 
Publisher John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
 
Date 2016
 
Type Article
PeerReviewed
 
Format text
 
Language en
 
Identifier http://eprints.cmfri.org.in/10744/1/Shyam_Global%20Change%20Biology_2016_Popova.pdf
Popova, Ekaterina E and Yool, Andrew and Byfield, Valborg and Cochrane, Kevern and Coward, A C and Shyam, S Salim and Gasalla, Maria A and Henson, S A and Hobday, A J and Pecl, Gretta T and Sauer, Warwick and Roberts, Michael (2016) From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots. Global Change Biology. pp. 1-16.