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An expert system approach to short-term load forecasting for Reliance energy limited, Mumbai

DSpace at IIT Bombay

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Title An expert system approach to short-term load forecasting for Reliance energy limited, Mumbai
 
Creator RAO, MSS
SOMAN, SA
MENEZES, BL
CHAWANDE, P
DIPTI, P
GHANSHYAM, T
 
Subject expert system approach
quadratic programming
short-terrn load forecasting
 
Description Economically efficient generation scheduling requires accurate forecasting of load. In this paper, we propose a Short Term Load Forecasting program for Reliance Energy Limited (REL) in Mumbai region. The method is based on a similar day approach. The development of forecast engine involves 4-steps. The first step involves discussion with domain experts (Utility Engineers) to extract and learn the rules regarding system behaviour. In the next step, these rules are refined by statistical analysis. A linear prediction model for each day of week is developed. The third step involves an adaptive implementation of the rules. The parameters of the linear model are learned from previous data by solving an optimization problem. Quadratic Programming is used with redundancy factor 2. The final step involves fine-tuning of forecast by re-shaping the forecast as the reference day using Fast Fourier Transform, filtering and smoothening by 3-point moving average technique. Normalization is done using dc component of reference day. Since the parameters are learnt from past few weeks data, the seasonal variations due to change in season like winter, summer are better modeled. Detailed study of the results of the forecast program, the overall Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of the forecasted data is 2.89 over an interval from Aug'04 to May'05 which is reasonable.
 
Publisher IEEE
 
Date 2011-10-26T12:11:41Z
2011-12-15T09:12:20Z
2011-10-26T12:11:41Z
2011-12-15T09:12:20Z
2006
 
Type Proceedings Paper
 
Identifier 2006 IEEE Power India Conference, Vols 1 and 2,34-39
978-0-7803-9525-1
http://dspace.library.iitb.ac.in/xmlui/handle/10054/16003
http://hdl.handle.net/100/2601
 
Source IEEE Power India Conference 2006,New Delhi, INDIA,APR 10-12, 2006
 
Language English