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Intermittent reservoir daily-inflow prediction using lumped and distributed data multi-linear regression models

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Title Intermittent reservoir daily-inflow prediction using lumped and distributed data multi-linear regression models
 
Creator MAGAR, R.B
JOTHIPRAKASH, V
 
Subject Multi-linear regression; lumped and distributed data; time-series models; cause-effect models; combined models; ARIMA models; Koyna reservoir inflow; India
 
Description In this study, multi-linear regression (MLR) approach is used to construct intermittent reservoir daily inflow forecasting system. To illustrate the applicability and effect of using lumped and distributed input data in MLR approach, Koyna river watershed in Maharashtra, India is chosen as a case study. The results are also compared with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. MLR attempts to model the relationship between two or more independent variables over a dependent variable by fitting a linear regression equation. The main aim of the present study is to see the consequences of development and applicability of simple models, when sufficient data length is available. Out of 47 years of daily historical rainfall and reservoir inflow data, 33 years of data is used for building the model and 14 years of data is used for validating the model. Based on the observed daily rainfall and reservoir inflow, various types of time-series, cause-effect and combined models are developed using lumped and distributed input data. Model performance was evaluated using various performance criteria and it was found that as in the present case, of well correlated input data, both lumped and distributed MLR models perform equally well. For the present case study considered, both MLR and ARIMA models performed equally sound due to availability of large dataset.
 
Publisher Indian Academy of Sciences
 
Date 2012-07-17T10:24:04Z
2012-07-17T10:24:04Z
2011
 
Type Article
 
Identifier Journal of Earth System Science,120(6)1067-1084
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12040-011-0127-9)
http://dspace.library.iitb.ac.in/jspui/handle/100/14386
 
Language English