Application of copulas for derivation of drought severity-duration-frequency curves
DSpace at IIT Bombay
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Title |
Application of copulas for derivation of drought severity-duration-frequency curves
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Creator |
REDDY, MJ
GANGULI, P |
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Subject |
drought
copulas SPI tail dependence S-D-F curves TAIL-DEPENDENCE COEFFICIENT NONPARAMETRIC APPROACH RECURRENCE ANALYSIS BIVARIATE MODEL INDEX QUANTIFICATION DEFINITION PERIODS RISK |
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Description |
This study presents copula-based multivariate probabilistic approach to model severitydurationfrequency (S-D-F) relationship of drought events in western Rajasthan, India. Drought occurrences are analysed using standardized precipitation index computed on monthly mean areal precipitation, aggregated at a time scale of 6?months. After testing with a series of probability density functions, the drought variable severity is found to be better represented with log-normal distribution, whereas duration is well fitted with exponential distribution. Four different classes of bivariate copulas Archimedean, extreme value, Plackett, and elliptical families are evaluated for modelling joint distribution of drought characteristics. It is observed that the extreme value copula GumbelHougaard copula performed better as compared with other classes of copulas, based on results of various statistical tests and upper tail dependence coefficient. The joint distribution obtained from best performing copula is then employed to determine conditional return period and to derive drought severity-duration-frequency (S-D-F) curves for the study region. The results of the study suggests that the copula method can be used effectively to derive the drought S-D-F curves, which can be helpful in planning and adopting suitable drought mitigation strategies in drought-prone areas. Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Publisher |
WILEY-BLACKWELL
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Date |
2014-10-15T11:05:51Z
2014-10-15T11:05:51Z 2012 |
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Type |
Article
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Identifier |
HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, 26(11)1672-1685
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8287 http://dspace.library.iitb.ac.in/jspui/handle/100/14819 |
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Language |
en
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