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Application of copulas for derivation of drought severity-duration-frequency curves

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Field Value
 
Title Application of copulas for derivation of drought severity-duration-frequency curves
 
Creator REDDY, MJ
GANGULI, P
 
Subject drought
copulas
SPI
tail dependence
S-D-F curves
TAIL-DEPENDENCE COEFFICIENT
NONPARAMETRIC APPROACH
RECURRENCE ANALYSIS
BIVARIATE
MODEL
INDEX
QUANTIFICATION
DEFINITION
PERIODS
RISK
 
Description This study presents copula-based multivariate probabilistic approach to model severitydurationfrequency (S-D-F) relationship of drought events in western Rajasthan, India. Drought occurrences are analysed using standardized precipitation index computed on monthly mean areal precipitation, aggregated at a time scale of 6?months. After testing with a series of probability density functions, the drought variable severity is found to be better represented with log-normal distribution, whereas duration is well fitted with exponential distribution. Four different classes of bivariate copulas Archimedean, extreme value, Plackett, and elliptical families are evaluated for modelling joint distribution of drought characteristics. It is observed that the extreme value copula GumbelHougaard copula performed better as compared with other classes of copulas, based on results of various statistical tests and upper tail dependence coefficient. The joint distribution obtained from best performing copula is then employed to determine conditional return period and to derive drought severity-duration-frequency (S-D-F) curves for the study region. The results of the study suggests that the copula method can be used effectively to derive the drought S-D-F curves, which can be helpful in planning and adopting suitable drought mitigation strategies in drought-prone areas. Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
 
Publisher WILEY-BLACKWELL
 
Date 2014-10-15T11:05:51Z
2014-10-15T11:05:51Z
2012
 
Type Article
 
Identifier HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, 26(11)1672-1685
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8287
http://dspace.library.iitb.ac.in/jspui/handle/100/14819
 
Language en