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Spatio-temporal analysis and derivation of copula-based intensity-area-frequency curves for droughts in western Rajasthan (India)

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Title Spatio-temporal analysis and derivation of copula-based intensity-area-frequency curves for droughts in western Rajasthan (India)
 
Creator REDDY, MJ
GANGULI, P
 
Subject Drought
SPI
Trend analysis
Copulas
Tail dependence
Intensity-area-frequency curves
TREND
SEVERITY
DURATION
REGION
TESTS
 
Description This study presents spatio-temporal analysis of droughts in one of the most drought prone region in India-western Rajasthan and develops drought intensity-area-frequency curves for the region. The meteorological drought conditions are analyzed using 6-month standardized precipitation index (SPI-6) estimated at spatial resolution of 0.5A degrees A xA 0.5A degrees. Spatio-temporal analysis of SPI-6 indicates increase in frequency of droughts at the central part of the region. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test for seasonal trend analysis showed increase in number of grids under drought during the study period. Further, bivariate frequency analysis of drought characteristics-intensity and areal extent is carried out using copula methods. For modeling joint dependence between drought variables, three copula families namely Gumbel-Hougaard, Frank and Plackett copulas are evaluated. Based on goodness-of-fit as well as upper tail dependence tests, it is found that the Gumbel-Hougaard copula best represents the drought properties. The copula-based joint distribution is used to compute conditional return periods and drought intensity-area-frequency (I-A-F) curves. The I-A-F curves could be helpful in risk evaluation of droughts in the region.
 
Publisher SPRINGER
 
Date 2014-10-15T11:06:22Z
2014-10-15T11:06:22Z
2013
 
Type Article
 
Identifier STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT, 27(8)1975-1989
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0732-z
http://dspace.library.iitb.ac.in/jspui/handle/100/14820
 
Language en