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Evaluation of global climate models for Indian monsoon climatology

DSpace at IIT Bombay

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Title Evaluation of global climate models for Indian monsoon climatology
 
Creator KODRA, E
GHOSH, S
GANGULY, AR
 
Subject regional and decadal prediction
Indian monsoon
Indian temperature trends
climate model evaluation
MULTIDECADAL VARIABILITY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS
IPCC AR4
SURFACE
SIMULATIONS
PROJECTIONS
OSCILLATION
RAINFALL
 
Description The viability of global climate models for forecasting the Indian monsoon is explored. Evaluation and intercomparison of model skills are employed to assess the reliability of individual models and to guide model selection strategies. Two dominant and unique patterns of Indian monsoon climatology are trends in maximum temperature and periodicity in total rainfall observed after 30 yr averaging over India. An examination of seven models and their ensembles reveals that no single model or model selection strategy outperforms the rest. The single-best model for the periodicity of Indian monsoon rainfall is the only model that captures a low-frequency natural climate oscillator thought to dictate the periodicity. The trend in maximum temperature, which most models are thought to handle relatively better, is best captured through a multimodel average compared to individual models. The results suggest a need to carefully evaluate individual models and model combinations, in addition to physical drivers where possible, for regional projections from global climate models.
 
Publisher IOP PUBLISHING LTD
 
Date 2014-10-16T06:26:37Z
2014-10-16T06:26:37Z
2012
 
Type Article
 
Identifier ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 7(1)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014012
http://dspace.library.iitb.ac.in/jspui/handle/100/15430
 
Language en