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Macroscale hydrological modelling approach for study of large scale hydrologic impacts under climate change in Indian river basins

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Title Macroscale hydrological modelling approach for study of large scale hydrologic impacts under climate change in Indian river basins
 
Creator RAJE, D
PRIYA, P
KRISHNAN, R
 
Subject macroscale
climate change
hydrology
river basin
TERRESTRIAL BIOPHYSICAL PARAMETERS
GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL
ROUTING MODEL
SOIL-MOISTURE
WATER-BALANCE
MONSOON RAINFALL
GLOBAL FIELDS
RUNOFF
STREAMFLOW
PRECIPITATION
 
Description In climate-change studies, a macroscale hydrologic model (MHM) operating over large scales can be an important tool in developing consistent hydrological variability estimates over large basins. MHMs, which can operate at coarse grid resolutions of about 1 degrees latitude by longitude, have been used previously to study climate change impacts on the hydrology of continental scale or global river basins. They can provide a connection between global atmospheric models and water resource systems on large spatial scales and long timescales. In this study, the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) MHM is used to study large scale hydrologic impacts of climate change for Indian river basins. Large-scale changes in runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture for India, as well as station-scale changes in discharges for three major river basins with distinct climatic and geographic characteristics are examined in this study. Climate model projections for meteorological variables (precipitation, temperature and wind speed) from three general circulation models (GCMs) and three emissions scenarios are used to drive the VIC MHM. GCM projections are first interpolated to a 1 degrees by 1 degrees hydrologic model grid and then bias-corrected using a quantile-quantile mapping. The VIC model is able to reproduce observed statistics for discharges in the Ganga, Narmada and Krishna basins reasonably well, even at the coarse grid resolution employed using a calibration period for years 1965-1970 and testing period from 1971-1973/1974. An increasing trend is projected for summer monsoon surface runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture in most central Indian river basins, whereas a decrease in runoff and soil moisture is projected for some regions in southern India, with important differences arising from GCM and scenario variability. Discharge statistics show increases in mid-flow and low flow at Farakka station on Ganga River, increased high flows at Jamtara station upstream of Narmada, and increased high, mid-flow and low flow for Vijayawada station on Krishna River in the future. Copyright (c) 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
 
Publisher WILEY-BLACKWELL
 
Date 2014-12-28T11:23:24Z
2014-12-28T11:23:24Z
2014
 
Type Article
 
Identifier HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, 28(4)1874-1889
0885-6087
1099-1085
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9731
http://dspace.library.iitb.ac.in/jspui/handle/100/16349
 
Language English