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Optimization and uncertainty analysis of operational policies for multipurpose reservoir system

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Title Optimization and uncertainty analysis of operational policies for multipurpose reservoir system
 
Creator GHIMIRE, BNS
REDDY, MJ
 
Subject Reservoir operation
Hydropower
Inflow uncertainty
Probability distribution
Hirakud reservoir
Particle swarm optimization
PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION
MULTIRESERVOIR SYSTEMS
ALGORITHM
DESIGN
 
Description This paper presents optimization and uncertainty analysis of operation policies for Hirakud reservoir system in Orissa state, India. The Hirakud reservoir project serves multiple purposes such as flood control, irrigation and power generation in that order of priority. A 10-daily reservoir operation model is formulated to maximize annual hydropower production subjected to satisfying flood control restrictions, irrigation requirements, and various other physical and technical constraints. The reservoir operational model is solved by using elitist-mutated particle swarm optimization (EMPSO) method, and the uncertainty in release decisions and end-storages are analyzed. On comparing the annual hydropower production obtained by EMPSO method with historical annual hydropower, it is found that there is a greater chance of improving the system performance by optimally operating the reservoir system. The analysis also reveals that the inflow into reservoir is highly uncertain variable, which significantly influences the operational decisions for reservoir system. Hence, in order to account uncertainty in inflow, the reservoir operation model is solved for different exceedance probabilities of inflows. The uncertainty in inflows is represented through probability distributions such as normal, lognormal, exponential and generalized extreme value distributions; and the best fit model is selected to obtain inflows for different exceedance probabilities. Then the reservoir operation model is solved using EMPSO method to arrive at suitable operational policies corresponding to various inflow scenarios. The results show that the amount of annual hydropower generated decreases as the value of inflow exceedance probability increases. The obtained operational polices provides confidence in release decisions, therefore these could be useful for reservoir operation.
 
Publisher SPRINGER
 
Date 2014-12-28T11:54:00Z
2014-12-28T11:54:00Z
2014
 
Type Article
 
Identifier STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT, 28(7)1815-1833
1436-3240
1436-3259
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00477-014-0846-y
http://dspace.library.iitb.ac.in/jspui/handle/100/16410
 
Language English