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Intensification of future severe heat waves in India and their effect on heat stress and mortality

DSpace at IIT Bombay

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Title Intensification of future severe heat waves in India and their effect on heat stress and mortality
 
Creator MURARI, KK
GHOSH, S
PATWARDHAN, A
DALY, E
SALVI, K
 
Subject TEMPERATURE EXTREMES
CLIMATE-CHANGE
TRENDS
21ST-CENTURY
PROJECTIONS
IMPACT
Heat wave
Mortality
CMIP5
Heat stress
Adaptation
Climate extremes
 
Description Heat waves are expected to intensify around the globe in the future, with potential increase in heat stress and heat-induced mortality in the absence of adaptation measures. India has a high current exposure to heat waves, and with limited adaptive capacity, impacts of increased heat waves might be quite severe. This paper presents the first projections of future heat waves in India based on multiple climate models and scenarios for CMIP5 data. We find that heat waves are projected to be more intense, have longer durations and occur at a higher frequency and earlier in the year. Southern India, currently not influenced by heat waves, is expected to be severely affected by the end of the twenty-first century. Projections indicate that a sizable part of India will experience heat stress conditions in the future. In northern India, the average number of days with extreme heat stress condition during pre-monsoon hot season will reach 30. The intensification of heat waves might lead to severe heat stress and increased mortality.
 
Publisher SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
 
Date 2016-01-14T11:07:20Z
2016-01-14T11:07:20Z
2015
 
Type Article
 
Identifier REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, 15(4)569-579
1436-3798
1436-378X
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0660-6
http://dspace.library.iitb.ac.in/jspui/handle/100/17435
 
Language en