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Simulation of Indian summer monsoon using the Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal ensemble prediction system

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Title Simulation of Indian summer monsoon using the Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal ensemble prediction system
 
Creator SONAWANE, K
SREEJITH, OP
PATTANAIK, DR
BENKE, M
PATIL, N
PAI, DS
 
Subject CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM
EMPIRICAL PREDICTION
SOUTHWEST MONSOON
RAINFALL
SST
MODEL
OCEAN
ANOMALIES
PROJECT
TIME
Indian monsoon rainfall
JMA model
ensemble prediction system
forecast skill
seasonal forecast of monsoon
coupled model
 
Description The performance of a dynamical seasonal forecast system is evaluated for the prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region during June-September (JJAS) by using hindcast of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) seasonal ensemble prediction system (EPS) model, based on five ensembles of March, April and May initial states for a period of 32 years (1979-2010). The hindcast climatology during JJAS simulates the mean monsoon circulation at lower and upper tropospheres very well in JMA model using March, April and May ensembles with a more realistic simulation of Webster and Yang's broad scale monsoon circulation index. The JMA hindcast climatology during JJAS simulates the rainfall maxima over the west-coast of India and the head Bay of Bengal reasonably well, although, the latter is slightly shifted southwestward. Associated with better forecast skills of El Nino in the JMA model, the interannual variability of All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) during the 32-year period has also been very well simulated with a high significant (99% level) correlation in April ensemble followed by that of March and May ensembles. Thus, the present analysis indicates that the JMA seasonal forecast model can prove to be a useful tool for the dynamical seasonal forecast of AISMR.
 
Publisher INDIAN ACAD SCIENCES
 
Date 2016-01-15T10:55:53Z
2016-01-15T10:55:53Z
2015
 
Type Article
 
Identifier JOURNAL OF EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE, 124(2)321-333
0253-4126
0973-774X
http://dspace.library.iitb.ac.in/jspui/handle/100/18401
 
Language en