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Statistical time series analysis of food grain production of Odisha

KrishiKosh

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Title Statistical time series analysis of food grain production of Odisha
 
Creator Sahoo, Snigdharani
 
Contributor Parida, A.K.
 
Subject time series analysis, food grain production, Odisha
 
Description Odisha is an agrarian state with agriculture contributing to 16% of the state GDP. Cereals and pulses are the major food of Odisha, which attributes significantly to its economy. Due to increase in demand of food grains over years, the modeling and forecasting of food grain Production is essential in supporting policy decision regarding land use allocation, food security and environmental issues. The present research intended to give a comprehensive picture of current status of food grain production in Odisha. Time series modeling using ARMA (Auto-regressive Moving-average) model was developed for individual univariate series of crop productions e.g. rice, maize, total Cereal, black gram, green gram, horse gram, pegionpea, total pulse and total food grain. The yearly food grain production data of Odisha from 1970-71 to 2012-13 has been taken from Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Odisha for model building and the data from 2008-09 to 2012-13 has been used for validation of the model. The production data were plotted against year and it was observed that in general, the trend of almost all the crop productions follow an upward and downward movement indicating the presence of non-stationarity. Hence to conform the presence of non-stationarity in the data ADF (Augmented Dickey-fuller) test was carried out. The best model arrived at on the basis of various diagnostics, selection and an evaluation criterion i.e. minimum Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and maximum Log Likelihood Function were ARMA(1,1) for rice, ARMA(1,1) for maize, ARMA(1,2) for total cereal, ARMA( 1,2) for black gram, ARMA(2,0) for green gram, ARMA(1,1) for horse gram, ARMA(2,0) for pegionpea, ARMA(2,0) for total pulse and ARMA(2,1) for total food grain Production. Finally, the forecast figures based on Box-Jenkins methods showed that the annual food grain production of Odisha is increasing continuously for the last five years as per the predicted value. Therefore, to maintain this stability appropriate steps are to be taken by the farmers as well as by the state Government to adopt modern and latest technologies, so that predicted productions will be useful for state planning and farmers will be more interested to grow food grains as commercial and competitive crop.
 
Date 2017-01-03T10:28:07Z
2017-01-03T10:28:07Z
2013
 
Type Thesis
 
Identifier http://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/94071
 
Language en
 
Relation Th;4422
 
Format application/pdf