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Statistical forecasting of met-ocean parameters in the Cochin estuarine system, southwest coast of India

DRS at CSIR-National Institute of Oceanography

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Title Statistical forecasting of met-ocean parameters in the Cochin estuarine system, southwest coast of India
 
Creator Srinivas, K.
Revichandran, C.
DineshKumar, P.K.
 
Subject sea surface temperature
EWMA
 
Description Three different statistical forecasting techniques - autoregressive, sinusoidal and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) were used to forecast monthly values of meteorological and oceanographic (met-ocean) parameters viz. sea surface temperature (SST), air temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, rainfall, relative density and sea level, in the Cochin estuarine system. The EWMA technique (which yields forecast with a lead time of only one month) gave the lowest root mean square errors relative to the verifying observations. Atmospheric pressure could be forecast with less than 5% of error while SST and air temperature with less than 10% of error, by all the three techniques. 80% of the time, sea level could be forecast with less than 10% error, by each of the three techniques. However, wind speed, relative density and rainfall could not be forecast by any of the three techniques with any acceptable degree of accuracy.
 
Date 2006-09-20T11:27:34Z
2006-09-20T11:27:34Z
2003
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Indian Journal of Marine Sciences, vol.32(4), 285-293p.
http://drs.nio.org/drs/handle/2264/414
 
Language en
 
Rights This digital version of the paper hosted with the permission from IJMS/NISCAIR.
http://www.niscair.res.in
 
Format 316615 bytes
application/pdf
 
Publisher NISCAIR, CSIR