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Summer monsoon rainfall prediction for India - Some new ideas

DRS at CSIR-National Institute of Oceanography

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Title Summer monsoon rainfall prediction for India - Some new ideas
 
Creator Varkey, M.J.
 
Subject meteorology
summer
monsoons
rainfall
prediction
seasonal variations
calamities
damage
climatology
 
Description Present methods of forecasting of mean Indian rainfall for summer monsoon season are critically examined. Considering the wide variations in mean seasonal rainfalls (more than 5 to less than 400 cm) and crops in various regions of India, the predicted Indian mean summer monsoon rainfall value does not seem to be of any practical use in relation to various crops in different climatic regions. If predictions can be done for homogeneous climatobiological regions (HCBR) in which rainfall distributions show narrow variations only, their use can be better. One such HCBR consisting of 8 meteorological subdivisions in central India is identified. After a careful consideration of the variations in rainfalls over the different meteorological subdivisions, in intensity and duration, and tolerance levels of various crops during different phases of growth to different types of rains, it is found that floods and droughts only cause calamities like famine, diseases, loss of property etc. At present, a famine can be managed from existing food reserves. But if accurate predictions are possible, management of all forms of calamities would be easier. Hence, it is concluded that in the Indian situations, accurate predictions of droughts and floods are important and to be aimed at for homogeneous climatological regions
 
Date 2008-02-22T06:39:44Z
2008-02-22T06:39:44Z
2005
 
Type Conference Article
 
Identifier Predicting Meteorological Events: Mathematical Approach, ed. by: Mahanti, N.C. 77-83p.
http://drs.nio.org/drs/handle/2264/1016
 
Language en
 
Rights Copyright [2005]. It is tried to respect the rights of the copyright holders to the best of the knowledge. If it is brought to our notice by copyright holder that the rights are voilated then the item would be withdrawn.
 
Publisher Narosa Publishing