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Adapting Nyando smallholder farming systems to climate change and variability through modeling

OAR@ICRISAT

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Relation http://oar.icrisat.org/10089/
http://dx.doi.org/10.5897/AJAR2017.12421
10.5897/AJAR2017.12421
 
Title Adapting Nyando smallholder farming systems to climate change and variability through modeling
 
Creator Tobias, O R
Gachene, C K K
Claessens, L
 
Subject Smallholder Farmers
Smallholder Agriculture
Farming Systems
Climate Change
 
Description This study was done in Nyando, Kenya to model maize production under different climate scenarios
and project the yields up to 2030 and 2050 using Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer
(DSSAT) under rain fed conditions. Three maize varieties were used; Katumani Comp B as early
maturing variety, Hybrid 511 as a medium maturing variety and Hybrid 614 as a late maturing variety.
Global coupled model Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 (HadGEM2-ES) under
representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 was used to downscale Nyando’s climate data
for the years 2030 and 2050. Past climate data for 53 years and current data was obtained from Kisumu
Meteorological station while crop growth and farm management data was obtained from 70 farmers in
Nyando. Results showed a decrease in yields across the years from 2015, 2030 and 2050 under both
RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Average simulated yields for 2015 were 2519 kg ha-1 while projected yields under RCP
4.5 were 2212 and 2081 kg ha-1 in 2030 and 2050 respectively. Average yield projections under RCP 8.5
were 2184 and 1806 kg ha-1 for the years 2030 and 2050 consecutively. The study found out that
temperatures will increase and rainfall duration will reduce. In addition, Katumani Comp B maize variety
was not very much affected by these changes in temperatures and rainfall compared to H511 and H614.
 
Publisher Academic Journals
 
Date 2017
 
Type Article
PeerReviewed
 
Format application/pdf
 
Language en
 
Rights —
 
Identifier http://oar.icrisat.org/10089/1/4D7E0A964989.pdf
Tobias, O R and Gachene, C K K and Claessens, L (2017) Adapting Nyando smallholder farming systems to climate change and variability through modeling. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 12 (26). pp. 2178-2187. ISSN 1991-637X