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FORECASTING OF CROP PRODUCTION IN ANDHRA PRADESH WITH SPLINE MODELS

KrishiKosh

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Title FORECASTING OF CROP PRODUCTION IN ANDHRA PRADESH WITH SPLINE MODELS
 
Creator NAVEEN, D
 
Contributor KULKARNI, B. S
 
Subject FORECASTING, CROP, PRODUCTION, ANDHRA PRADESH, WITH, SPLINE, MODELS
 
Description Agricultural production data often exhibits a discontinuity in the year to
year variations. These disturbances are mainly due to the impact of technological
innovations in the crop. Under this situation the conventional time trend models fail
to provide an appropriate model for forecasting. These conventional models are
based on the assumption of uniformity in the year to year variations. Under this
situation the study was planned to explore the applicability of Spline models in
forecasting the agricultural production. The study was confined to the three regions
of A.P. as well as state of A.P. as a whole corresponding to the 48 years crop
production data covering the years 1956-2003. Thirteen forecasting models were
developed for the representative crops of the regions and state.
The study revealed that, the time series data on production of the
selected crops exhibited a ‘discontinuous’ trend. The discontinuity was mainly due to
the technological impact. The procedure of cluster analysis proposed for identification
of knots was found to be an ‘effective’ tool that represented analogies with the
collateral evidences for the ‘disturbances’ in the production levels. Spline Models
were found to be relatively efficient than the conventional trend fitting models in
estimation and forecasting of production, which exhibited a discontinuity in the year
to year variations.
 
Date 2016-08-20T15:28:48Z
2016-08-20T15:28:48Z
2005
 
Type Thesis
 
Identifier http://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/73211
 
Language en
 
Relation D7506;
 
Format application/pdf
 
Publisher ACHARYA N.G.RANGA AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY, RAJENDRANAGAR, HYDERABAD