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FORECASTING OF FOOD GRAIN PRODUCTION IN ANDHRA PRADESH

KrishiKosh

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Title FORECASTING OF FOOD GRAIN PRODUCTION IN ANDHRA PRADESH
 
Creator ANUSHA, B
 
Contributor KULKARNI, B. S
 
Subject FORECASTING, FOOD, GRAIN, PRODUCTION, ANDHRA PRADESH
 
Description The time series data on production of crops often exhibits a discontinuity in
the year to year variations. These disturbances are mainly due to the impact of
technological innovations in the crop. Under this situation, the conventional time
trend models fail to provide an appropriate model for forecasting, as these models
are based on the assumption of uniformity in the year to year variations. Similar is
the case with measurement of growth. The growth rates obtained from the data
that exhibits a discontinuity often present illusionary picture of the data. The study
was therefore planned to explore the applicability of Spline models in forecasting
the food grain production, as ‘discontinuity’ in the year to year variation is the
fundamental assumption in these models. An attempt was also made to measure
the growth rate with due consideration of discontinuity in the data. The study was
confined to the three regions of A.P as well as state of A.P as a whole and was
based on 40 years of production data covering the years 1966-2005.Three
categories of crop production namely total food grains, total oilseeds and total
pulses were considered in the study and forecasting models as well as growth rate
were obtained.
Spline Models were found to be relatively efficient than the conventional
trend fitting models in forecasting of crop production.
The Growth analysis revealed that the production data of crops exhibited a
considerable increase in the production level, over the years in all the regions and
the state. Total pulses production have emerged as the most promising crop with
regard to the increase in the production in the recent years. In general, the growth
of production in total food grains and oilseeds during the recent years was found
to be exhibiting a stagnancy, indicating the need to evolve development measures
in these crop categories
 
Date 2016-08-05T14:39:33Z
2016-08-05T14:39:33Z
2007
 
Type Thesis
 
Identifier http://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/71085
 
Language en
 
Relation D8118;
 
Format application/pdf
 
Publisher ACHARYA N.G. RANGA AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY, RAJENDRANAGAR, HYDERABAD