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TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRDOUCTIVITY OF MAJOR COARSE CEREALS IN ANDHRA PRADESH

KrishiKosh

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Title TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRDOUCTIVITY OF MAJOR COARSE CEREALS IN ANDHRA PRADESH
 
Creator NIREESHA, VAKA
 
Contributor SRINIVASA RAO, V
 
Subject COARSE CEREALS
 
Description The Present study entitled “Time Series Analysis of area, production and productivity of major coarse cereals in Andhra Pradesh” has been undertaken to fit different trend equations like linear, non-linear and time series models for major coarse cereals like Maize, Sorghum, Pearl millet and Finger milet and also made the future forecasts by 2020 AD. The study was carried out for Andhra Pradesh state using time series data from 1966 to 2012.
For forecasting purpose ten linear and non-linear growth models viz., linear, logarithmic, inverse, quadratic, cubic, compound, power, s-curve, growth and exponential and time series models like ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing models were fitted to the area, production and productivity of selected crops and influence of weather parameters like Maximum temperature (0C), Minimum temperature (0C), Rainfall (mm), Morning Relative Humidity (RH1) (%), Evening Relative Humidity (RH2) (%) on productivity were calculated by using statistical analysis like Karl Pearson’s Correlation analysis and Multiple Linear Regression Analysis. the best-fitted model for future projection was chosen based upon highest Theil’s U-Statistic, coefficient of determination (R2) and significant Adjusted R2 with least MAPE values.
The study revealed that the area, production and productivity of maize marked increasing trend during the study period 1966-2012 the same trend was continued for the forecasted period i.e up to 2020. In sorghum there was an increasing trend followed by decreasing trend in area and production whereas productivity showed an increasing trend; the forecasts also exhibited an increasing trend. The pearl millet crop revealed that area showed decreasing trend but production and productivity showed slightly increasing trend. Whereas finger
millet crop area and production showed decreasing trend and productivity showed slightly increasing trend during the study period. Forecasts also exhibited the same trend.
From correlation analysis where RH2 showed significant correlation with productivity of Maize crop. In sorghum crop, only RH1 showed significant correlation with productivity. In pearl millet, RH1 and RH2 showed significant correlation with productivity. In case of finger millet for productivity only RH1 showed significant correlation. The Multiple Linear Regression Analysis revealed that the predicted models for all the crops were significant in RH1. It was also identified that other than weather parameters many factors are influencing Productivity of these crops.
 
Date 2016-12-22T10:38:15Z
2016-12-22T10:38:15Z
2014
 
Type Thesis
 
Identifier 140P.
http://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/92057
 
Language en_US
 
Relation D5077;
 
Format application/pdf
 
Publisher ACHARYA N.G. RANGA AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY